By Richard M. Rossow

India’s national Parliament election will be held in 9 phases from April 7 through May 12, 2014.  Results will be announced on May 16.

Key Points

Following the 2004 and 2009 elections, here are the average times between the release of the election results, and key follow-on actions:

• 7.5 Days: Swearing in of the prime minister.

• 18 Days: Parliament meets to conduct basic business.

• 50 Days: Parliament meets for its first real Parliament session, focused on passing a budget for the remaining fiscal year.

• 53.5 Days:  The new finance minister offers the Budget Speech, outlining the new government’s economic agenda.

The Details

Today the Election Commission of India released the dates of India’s Parliament election.  The election will start on April 7 and end on May 12.  The results will be announced on May 16.

For the business and foreign policy community, there are a pair of important follow-on questions:

• How soon will we likely see a government form?

• How quickly thereafter will the government outline a specific economic vision?

There are a number of variables that will potentially affect the timing of the formation of a government.  Chief among these variables is whether any party or coalition is even able to prove a majority and actually form a government.  In an era of coalition politics, nothing is certain.

Looking back at the 2004 and 2009 elections, we can sketch out a typical timeline for when the government will start moving again. The timeframes for action in 2004 and 2009 are surprisingly similar considering that in the 2004 election, the opposition won and had to quickly organize a coalition, while in the 2009 election, the incumbent came back with a much larger share of Parliament seats.

The 2004 Election

The results of the 2004 election were announced on May 13, 2004. The Congress Party surprised most pundits, and themselves, by winning more seats than the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Congress, which had previously been averse to forming coalitions, was able to cobble together the United Progress Alliance (UPA-1) despite having won only 145 seats out of 543.

• Nine days later after the results were announced, on May 22, Dr. Manmohan Singh was sworn in as the nation’s prime minister.

• Twenty days after the results were announced, Parliament was convened for a short session to conduct basic parliamentary business.

• Fifty-three days after the results were announced, Parliament again convened to pass a budget for the remaining 2004-05 fiscal year.

• Fifty-six days after the results were announced, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram offered his “Budget Speech,” outlining the party’s economic vision.

The 2009 Election

Congress won re-election in 2009, increasing its seat total to 206 seats out of 543.  While the coalition changed somewhat, the key party leaders remained in place.

• Six days after the election, on May 22, 2009, Dr. Manmohan Singh was sworn in for a second time.

• Sixteen days after the results were announced, Parliament convened for a short session to conduct basic parliamentary business.

• Forty-seven days after the results were announced, Parliament again convened to pass a budget for the remaining 2009-10 fiscal year.

• Fifty-one days after the results were announced, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee offered his “Budget Speech,” outlining the party’s economic vision for its second term.

On average, from the time the election results are announced it takes seven and a half days until the prime minister is sworn in, fifty days until Parliament convenes for its first real session, and fifty three and a half days until the finance minister outlines the government’s key economic objectives through the Budget Speech.

Mr. Richard M. Rossow holds the Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at CSIS. Follow him on twitter @RichardRossow.