By Richard M. Rossow —

The CSIS Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies brings to you a video series featuring some of the world’s top experts on India, tackling critical questions framed to understand the significance of the five state elections — Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal — that started at the beginning of April. These five states have a combined population of 229 million; a total greater than all but four countries. This point should be sufficiently significant as to warrant international attention.

There is a lot at stake in these state-level elections. India’s states collectively exercise a great deal of authority over India’s business environment and its human development. Under India’s constitution, states have near-total control over electricity grids, water distribution, law and order, agriculture markets, sanitation, and most regulation of businesses. Innovative states are taking the lead in using this power to improve their residents’ lives and are competing to attract investment by reforming land acquisition and labor laws.

Guessing the outcomes of state-level elections is always a difficult task. Advance polls have not proven reliable, and even exit polls are rarely attuned with actual outcomes. But irrespective of the outcomes, these five state elections will help our understanding of India’s politics in the years to come in terms of the makeup of the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of the Indian parliament, shaping our views about incumbent governments’ re-electability, and gauging the political fortunes of both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress Party.

Role of states in the Indian economy: What impact do state elections have on the overall economic growth of India?

When the Narendra Modi government came to power in 2014, it rejuvenated the concepts of competitive and cooperative federalism. While the central government cannot force state-level reforms, institutions like the National Institution for Transforming India (NITI) Aayog and the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) have undertaken novel projects to gauge the relative attractiveness of state business environments, and encourage reforms. States that improve their policies on land, water, sanitation, management of power grids, and the business environment, will directly affect the national economy.

The Modi government is also undertaking programs that will alter the balance of power between the central government and the states. In some instances such as the Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojna (UDAY) power sector bailout and the Goods and Services Tax, more authority will be vested with the central government. On the other hand, programs like devolving greater federal funds directly to states will strengthen states’ hands to shape their own economy.

Mr. Richard Rossow is senior fellow and Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at CSIS. Follow him on twitter @RichardRossow.

 

Is there a change in BJP’s campaign strategy after losing the Bihar Assembly election in 2015?

In the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections, the BJP were confident of a resounding victory. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself visited over 30 rallies in 10 days to campaign for the BJP. The party and the prime minister deviated from their development pitch to include social issues and personal insults toward the opposition. These strategies helped them win only 53 of the 243 seats, a drop of 91 seats since the last state elections in Bihar.

However, the incumbent party in power, Janata Dal (United), created a coalition with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Indian National Congress to win the Bihar elections with 178 seats. None of the five states, in elections at the moment, has ever been held by the BJP. However, the BJP did win half the Lok Sabha seats from Assam in 2014. It becomes imperative to evaluate the changes or the lack thereof in BJP’s election campaign strategy.

Ms. Sarah Watson is an associate fellow with the Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at CSIS. Follow her on twitter @SWatson_CSIS.

 

Best case scenario for BJP and Congress: What will constitute success for the BJP and the Congress Party in the ongoing state elections?

The ongoing state elections pose a unique challenge for both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress. The BJP has not historically been viewed as a contender in elections in these states. Prime Minister Modi has been intimately involved in the election campaign for the BJP in these five states. He has been vocal in calling out the parties in power—calling Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal the “Terror, Maut (death), and Corruption” party or comparing United Democratic Front-led Kerala to Somalia among other examples.

While BJP has never held control of any of the five states, it won 50 percent of the seats from Assam in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014. On the other hand, the Congress has its own set of challenges. These elections will determine whether the Congress is able to maintain control in its traditional voter base.

Dr. Milan Vaishnav is a senior associate with the South Asia Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Follow him on twitter @MilanV.

 

What impact can these five state elections have on India’s foreign policy?

Five years ago the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress broke the Communist Party of India’s (Marxist) 30-year reign in West Bengal and represented a critical block of support in the Congress Party–led UPA government. She used this position to block key economic reforms, as well as regional agreements like the Teesta Water Sharing Agreement with Bangladesh. While the Teesta agreement did not materialize during the Singh-era, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has actively courted her support, including inviting her to accompany him on his state visit to Bangladesh in 2015, and her positions on federal issues have softened somewhat.

This is just one way that an elected state leader was able to put a halt to the central government’s foreign policy agenda. Four out of the five states in this election—Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal—can play a critical role in influencing India’s engagement with the world.

Dr. Tanvi Madan is a fellow in the Project on International Order and Strategy in the Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institution and director of the India Project. Follow her on twitter @Tanvi_Madan.

 

What does the future look like for the left parties in Kerala and for Indian national politics?

Leftist parties in Indian politics, led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)), have played a significant role in the state of Kerala. Except for in the state of Tripura, the leftist parties have been unable to maintain a stronghold of traditional leftist voters in West Bengal and Kerala. However, unlike in West Bengal, where the leftist party was ousted by Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress after three decades, Kerala has faced a strong trend of anti-incumbency since 1982.

Kerala politics have moved back and forth from electing the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by CPI(M) to the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress Party. With a strong show of force by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Kerala, the BJP has become the third player to shift the balance of political parties. However, exit polls show that Kerala will stay true to its trend of anti-incumbency and will elect the LDF to form the next state government in Kerala. The performance of the leftist parties in Kerala can give us a glimpse of their role in the future of Indian politics.

Dr. D. Dhanuraj is chairman at Centre for Public Policy Research in Kerala, India. Follow him on twitter @Dhanuraj.