By Esther Sainsbury
Natalie Sambhi believes that my recent post on the Lowy Interpreter has missed what the promotion of Lieutenant General Pramono Edhie Wibowo to Army Chief means for Australia and its diplomatic relations with Indonesia.
This is in part correct.
My post focused on the expanding the U.S.-Indonesia military and foreign military sales relationship. It questioned how Australia would balance the U.S. Government’s enthusiasm for a more regionally active and influential Indonesia with our own strategic priorities. In the context of musings about the future of the U.S.-Indonesia-Australia defence relationship, I did not think that the implications of Wibowo’s promotion deserved to feature.
High-ranking military officials making a splash in Indonesian political life is nothing new. The immediate implications of Wibowo’s promotion for Australia mean little more than getting to know the new Pak Toisutta.
Questioning how Australia might reconcile Wibowo’s career progression with our democratic values makes a mountain out of a mole hill. It also undervalues Wibowo’s military credentials. Even Indonesia’s notoriously vigorous and open political analysts, while noting his relationship to SBY, acknowledge that Wibowo was probably the strongest contender for the job.
There has been a long history of complex military personalities occupying senior positions in Indonesian government. In her response to Natalie, Greta Nabbs-Keller is right to point out that Wibowo presents a far more palatable candidate than Indonesian Generals Wiranto and Subianto. I would also add that Wibowo would present a far better 2014 candidate than the likes of “businessmen” Tommy Suharto.
In the event that Wibowo was elected President, I expect that Canberra would deal with Wibowo in the same manner as other democratically elected Generals like Suharto and SBY – by moving forward.
For Australia, the issue is not what diplomatic relations will look like with a character like Wibowo at the helm, but what it will look like without SBY. As the U.S. and China vie to shape ASEAN-based regional security architectures, Canberra’s focus is correctly leveled on making the most out of the Obama-SBY cooperative partnership in the context of the EAS in November, not on Wibowo’s promotion.
Esther Sainsbury is the Thawley Scholar at the Lowy Institute for International Affairs in Sydney, and a visiting fellow in residence at CSIS. All views are her own, and do not reflect the opinion of the Australian Department of Defence or the Australian Government.
