Social Unrest from India’s Demographic Dividend

By Camille Danvers

Source: Wikimedia.

Students protest the rising violence against women on Raisina Hill, Delhi. Will India’s demographic bugle translate into social unrest? Source: Wikimedia user Nilanjana Roy, used under a creative commons license.

In the 1960s, the baby boomer generation shook the U.S., advocating social and political changes on an unprecedented scale.  Today, India is facing a similar situation as an emerging educated and young middle class expects more transparency from their government and increased equality within their society. 

Currently in India, half the population is under 25.  India’s middle class could increase tenfold by 2025, from 50 million to 583 million, if high growth rates continue. This emerging young, tech-savvy and relatively-affluent citizenry is organizing and participating in movements promoting equality for women, reforming corrupt practices, and protecting freedom of speech. The aims of this “middle-class awakening,” are directly in line with democratic principles in the U.S.  The India Government might consider taking steps towards the reforms that many of its citizens desire. Reforms in India’s political and social landscape would not only lead to more openness, but also to further their relationship with the U.S. and other democracies.

Violence against women, and more broadly gender cultural norms in India, came to the forefront after a 23-year-old woman was raped and killed in December 2012.  This story gained not only national but global attention, and Indian youth in particular are a major force in the continuation of this movement, organizing protests and marches, as well as using social media to demand change. Protests have only intensified after news broke that a 4-year-old girl had been kidnapped, raped and later died; youth political wings and student groups have come out in full force expressing their disgust with the treatment of women and children in India. 

Young urban students have been central to the India Against Corruption movement (IAC) that began in 2011 under Anna Hazare’s leadership.  One student protest in front of Jantar Mantar lasted 100 hours and included students from 20 different states.  A “State of the Nation” poll found that 71% of people with a college education or higher and 66% of those living in urban areas, who are generally wealthier, believed the government was corrupt.  

The middle class and youth have actively protested government censorship, particularly of the internet.  Many police officers have been thought to stretch the meaning of India’s 2008 Information Technology Act to arrest men and women for voicing their opinions on social media sites.   In August 2012, a group of students protested  the Indian Government’s crackdown on internet access after an eruption of ethnic tension in Assam.  The Government limited people to five text messages per day and blocked access to over 300 websites, including The Telegraph, the British news source.

Indians have reacted to these inequalities and government practices by using their constitutionally protected right to protest. This reaction represents not only a chance for change, but also a strengthening of India’s democracy. 

Morally, the concerns raised by Indian citizens are fully consisted with the values of the United States. But there are political, economic and social incentives for change as well.  India’s treatment of women and children has adversely affected tourism and the people-to-people relationship between our citizens. The US State Department cautions women from traveling alone in India. Human Rights Watch World Report 2013 indicated that India has become an increasingly unsafe for women, with a dramatic increase in reports of sexual violence against women. Some companies have decided not to invest in India due to corruption. Additionally, the Indian Government’s censorship practices have provided challenges for U.S. companies, such as Google and Facebook. The reforms the Indian middle class are pushing could relieve some of the points of friction within the U.S.-India relationship.

India is truly at a crossover point, from the ‘old’ India to the ‘new’ India.  Its youthful population provides a momentous opportunity for it to grow economically, politically, and socially.  Whether it embraces these social movements will determine how modern and inclusive India will be as a nation in the 21st century.

Ms. Camille Danvers is a researcher with the Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at CSIS. Follow the Wadhwani Chair on twitter @CSISIndiaChair.

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