North Korea Announces Successful Hydrogen Bomb Nuclear Test

By Victor Cha

Propaganda poster in Pyongyang, North Korea. Source: Ninjawil’s flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

  • The latest test, coming two days before Kim Jong-un’s birthday, demonstrates that North Korea is not building a couple of bombs in the basement, it wants the most modern, sophisticated, and lethal nuclear weapons program it can achieve.
  • If the hydrogen bomb claims are true, then this is beyond the capabilities that the expert community thought the North could achieve. The battery of international sanctions after three nuclear tests are not delaying the development of the program.
  • All eyes will be on China to see whether this nuclear test near the Chinese border will finally compel a change in Beijing’s support of the regime. While it might lead to some short-term titration of assistance, it is unlikely to cause China to abandon the North.
  • This is the fourth nuclear test by North Korea since 2006, and the third during the Obama administration.
  • The international community will harshly condemn the test and move to apply more sanctions but it is unclear what yet another UN resolution will do to deter advances in the program.
  • The nuclear test flies in the face of recent efforts at inter-Korean dialogue, Japanese initiatives, and overtures by China to the reclusive regime, demonstrating the political will of a regime that seems intent on establishing itself as a nuclear weapons power before re-engaging with any of the regional powers, including the United States.

Korea Chair Snapshot is a product by the CSIS Korea Chair providing key takeaways from breaking events of the day. Korea Chair Snapshot is published by the Office of the Korea Chair.

Dr. Victor Cha is senior adviser and holds the Korea Chair at CSIS. You can follow him on twitter @vcgiants.

Victor Cha

Victor Cha

Dr. Victor Cha is senior adviser and Korea Chair at CSIS. He is also a professor of government at Georgetown University.

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3 comments for “North Korea Announces Successful Hydrogen Bomb Nuclear Test

  1. Liars N. Fools
    January 6, 2016 at 18:52

    The discussion about whether the device was thermo-nuclear or merely atomic is actually besides the point. The game changer is that neither the “friendly” constraint by China nor the deterrence/preparedness stance by the ROK and us (with Japan in tow) are working let alone “international condemnation” — that favorite diplomatic buzzword.

    We will likely go through the usual steps of UNSC resolutions and some “enhanced” sanctions while we push for more deterrence and higher alert status. We will also likely go to our favorite trilateral coordination with Korea and Japan (despite the lack of muscle by the Japanese).

    That is the wrong trilateral. We should instead view the South, the Chinese, and ourselves as the main actors, and it is time to contemplate a trilateral strategic deal among the Republic of Korea (ROK), China, and us to undercut the regime in earnest. This will necessitate a grand strategic bargain to support the ROK as in charge of the whole peninsula and putting into place guarantees so that the Chinese (and the South) do not confront a humanitarian crisis and that China not confront potentially hostile American forces close its border.

    South Korean President Park Geun-hye has been right to pursue a trilateral U.S.-China-ROK mechanism. Her initial intent was to push for an effective negotiation. We have been cool to the idea because we are not friendly towards Beijing and because we did not want to “offend” the rather strategically weak Japanese. Now is the time to push the South Korean-Chinese-American trilateral in a strategic coercive direction.

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