By Sundar Ramanujam —

Members of the Congress Party rally in Mumbai. Source: Al Jazeera English’s flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

In the last two years there has been a sudden surge in political strength of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). First, in the elections for India’s lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha, the BJP displaced the incumbent Congress-led coalition government with a powerful majority. The national elections punctuated a highly successful period for the BJP at the state level; it entered election season controlling five states (both on its own and with the help of its allies) and since then has formed governments in nine more states. A concurrent series of losses for the Indian National Congress has given rise to speculation that the party is no longer an effective force in Indian politics. A closer look at the data, however, shows that even as Congress has lost states its vote share has remained largely intact. Reports of Congress’s decline are exaggerated; India’s oldest political party remains very much relevant in political affairs (at least at the state level).

Assessing the strength of the parties by looking only at which states each party controls understates Congress’s strength. The BJP does lead in terms of the total number of states where it is the largest party, controlling nine state governments (shown in green in Figure A). It is also the second largest party in three other states: Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Karnataka (red states in Figure A). In contrast, only six states are governed by Congress. But Congress is the second-largest party in 13 other state assemblies. Thus Congress continues to remain a relevant political force in more states than the BJP, which is either the first or second party in only 13 states.

Figures A and B depict the role of BJP and Congress in different state assemblies as of July 2016. Source: Various State Legislative Assemblies, graphic prepared by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Furthermore, while Congress has experienced an overall decline, its trajectory has been gentler and more inconsistent than the narrative of terminal decline would suggest. Congress has lost significant vote share in some states over the last three election cycles, but in others it has held ground and even improved.

The map below with Figures C and D depicts the drop in each party’s vote shares between a state’s most recent and third most-recent assembly elections. State elections held between 2002 and 2006 were contrasted with those taking place between 2012 and 2016. Elections during the first cycle took place in the years leading up to, or shortly after, Congress’s victory in the 2004 national elections. Elections during the most recent cycle span a parallel period in the history of the BJP.

Comparing the two cycles, Congress has lost the most ground in Haryana, Sikkim, and Andhra Pradesh. At the same time, however, Congress managed to hold its ground or make gains in several other states. Vote share for Congress has been on the rise over the last three election cycles in Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and many of the Northeastern states.

Over the same time, the BJP has made steep vote share gains in 11 states, in addition to repeating its strong performance in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh (averaging close to 45 percent). The fact that the BJP has held its ground in states like Madhya Pradesh, where Congress is also improving, suggest that at least some of the BJP’s gains come at the expense of local parties and independent candidates, not Congress.

Figures C and D depict change in vote share for BJP and Congress between the last three assembly elections. Source: Election Commission of India, graphic prepared by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

The data show that Congress is losing ground in most states, but it has not done so as dramatically as top-line election results would suggest. The bottom line is that utilizing state control as the sole metric to measure the decline of Congress results in an understatement of its political power.

Mr. Sundar Ramanujam is a researcher with the Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at CSIS.