Examining the Utility of India’s State Elections to Predict the General Election Outcome

By Andrew Keir —

An Indian voter reads a political pamphlet distributed during a rally for the Indian National Congress in Mumbai, India. Source: Al Jazeera English's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

An Indian voter reads a political pamphlet distributed during a rally for the Indian National Congress in Mumbai, India. Source: Al Jazeera English’s flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

Several large Indian states will go to the polls in the next two years. With the national elections only two and a half years away, political commentators are likely to exaggerate the importance of each state-level outcome, representing each as either highly unfavorable for Prime Minister Narendra Modi or an auspicious omen of his party’s eventual victory. In fact, an analysis of past election results suggests that state elections held within a year of the national election are a far more reliable indicator of outcomes in that state in the following national election than are state elections held two years prior.

These results are based on an examination of the last three election cycles. This analysis begins with the 2004 general election — and the preceding state elections — because the 1999 general election, which was triggered by the dissolution of Parliament, reset the calendar. It focuses on India’s two biggest political parties — the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC). This post gives detailed results for the 9 largest of the 15 states that will hold elections between January 2017 and December 2018. It includes the number of seats up for election in the Vidhan Sabha (legislative assembly) and Lok Sabha (lower house of Parliament) in each state for reference. Karnataka is omitted, as its own election cycle was reset in 2008.

Chhattisgarh

Next State Election: Fall 2018

Total Seats: 90 Vidhan Sabha and 11 Lok Sabha seats

Bottom Line: The BJP’s consistent success in both state and national elections in Chhattisgarh makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about the predictive value of this state’s elections.

Chhattisgarh election results 2003-2014. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Chhattisgarh election results 2003-2014. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Details: BJP and INC seat shares in both the Vidhan Sabha (state assembly) and the Lok Sabha (national assembly) have been consistent since 2003. In the Vidhan Sabha, the BJP has held about 55 percent (50 out of 90) of seats and the INC has held about 42 percent (38 out of 90). The BJP has completely dominated the Lok Sabha in the last three general elections, winning 10 out of 11 seats. Although the margin of success differs between the state and national levels, the consistency of the state elections is reflected in the consistency of the general elections. This makes it difficult to say whether a sharp fall for the BJP in the state election might herald a changing result in 2018.

Goa

Next State Election: Spring 2017

Total Seats: 40 Vidhan Sabha and 2 Lok Sabha seats

Bottom Line: Goa’s state elections have in recent years accurately predicted the way the state would go in Lok Sabha elections.

Goa election results. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Goa election results 2002-2014. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Details: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC) won an equal share of Vidhan Sabha seats in the 2002 and 2007 state elections. This was reflected in each party winning one of the two Lok Sabha seats in the respective 2004 and 2009 general elections.

In the 2012 election, the BJP won seven (17.5 percent) more seats in the Vidhan Sabha than in the 2007 election. Conversely, the INC lost seven (17.5 percent) of the Vidhan Sabha seats that they had won in 2007. This significant momentum towards BJP in the state election transferred to the 2014 general election, where the party won both of Goa’s Lok Sabha seats. Therefore, it can be concluded that Goa’s last three state elections have accurately predicted the succeeding general elections.

Gujarat

Next State Election: Winter 2017

Total Seats: 182 Vidhan Sabha and 26 Lok Sabha seats

Bottom Line: The statistics from Modi’s home state indicate that the state elections do not serve as an accurate predictor of state performance in the general elections.

Gujarat election results. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Gujarat election results 2002-2014. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Details: In 2002, the BJP won 70 percent of the Vidhan Sabha seats, compared to the INC’s 28 percent. In the 2004 general election, however, both parties won roughly half the Lok Sabha seats — 54 percent for the BJP and 46 percent for the INC. The percentages in the 2007 state election and the 2009 general election are comparable to those in 2002 and 2004.

The 2012 state election seemed to show the BJP’s appeal lessening somewhat: while it still won 63 percent of seats, the INC gained slightly at its expense. But the party came roaring back in the 2014 general election, winning all of the state’s 26 Lok Sabha seats. The INC lost all 11 seats it held.

Himachal Pradesh

Next State Election: Winter 2017

Total Seats: 68 Vidhan Sabha and 4 Lok Sabha seats

Bottom Line: Before 2009, state elections outcomes were good predictors of the general elections. After that year, however, the state and general election trends have been inversely correlated.

Himachal Pradesh election results 2002-2014. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Details: In the 2012 state elections, the BJP dropped to 38 percent (26 out of 68) of Vidhan Sabha seats, down from 60 percent (41 seats) in 2007. The same year, the INC gained 13 seats, for a total of 36 (53 percent). Yet the BJP improved markedly in the 2014 general election, winning all four Lok Sabha seats (up from three).

Madhya Pradesh

Next State Election: Winter 2018

Total Seats: 230 Vidhan Sabha and 29 Lok Sabha seats

Bottom Line: State elections in Madhya Pradesh have accurately predicted the state’s last three general elections.

Madhya Pradesh election results 2003-2014. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Details: Trends in the Madhya Pradesh state elections are reflected in the general elections. For example, the BJP lost 30 Vidhan Sabha seats in 2008 and were reduced to 62 percent in the legislative assembly. Similarly, the BJP lost nine seats in the Lok Sabha in 2009, leaving them with 55 percent. They won 86 percent in 2005. After the BJP regained 22 Vidhan Sabha seats in 2013, they won 93 percent of the available Lok Sabha seats in 2014.

The INC made big gains in both the 2008 state election and the 2009 general election.  In 2013, however, it lost 13 of the 71 seats it held previously in the Vidhan Sabha. Subsequently, in the 2014 general election, the INC gave up 10 of its 12 Lok Sabha seats.

Punjab

Next State Election: Spring 2017

Total Seats: 117 Vidhan Sabha and 13 Lok Sabha seats

Bottom Line: Punjab’s state elections are a poor indicator of general election outcomes. Both parties frequently do well in elections at one level, only to see the trend reversed in the next election cycle.

Punjab election results. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Punjab election results 2002-2014. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Details: The INC performed very poorly in the 2007 state election, losing 18 of their 62 Vidhan Sabha seats. But in the 2009 general election they quadrupled their share of Lok Sabha seats, going from two to eight. In the 2012 state election, the INC gained two more Vidhan Sabha seats, but their Lok Sabha share tumbled to three in 2014. Similarly, in 2007 the BJP improved their Vidhan Sabha total by 16, to 19 seats. However, in 2009, the BJP lost two of their three Lok Sabha seats.

Rajasthan

Next State Election: Winter 2018

Total Seats: 200 Vidhan Sabha and 25 Lok Sabha seats

Bottom Line: Rajasthan’s state elections accurately predicted trends in the succeeding general election, but the results in the state elections did not always reflect the magnitude of swings in general elections.

Rajasthan election results. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Rajasthan election results 2003-2014. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Details: Rajasthan has seen wild swings between election cycles, a sign of the state’s anti-incumbency tendencies. In 2008, the BJP won 78 Vidhan Sabha seats, 42 seats less than it had won in 2003. By contrast, the INC gained 40 Vidhan Sabha seats, bringing its total to 90. In 2009, however, the BJP truly collapsed, losing 17 (68 percent) of its Lok Sabha seats. Befitting a zero-sum political environment where the BJP and INC are the two major parties, the INC picked up 16 of the 17 seats the BJP lost—bringing its total to 20 seats, or 80 percent of the state’s delegation. The BJP made a significant comeback in 2013, however, winning 163 Vidhan Sabha seats; it went on to win all 25 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. The Rajasthan branch of the INC was thus shut out of the Lok Sabha and held on to only 21 seats in the Vidhan Sabha.

Uttar Pradesh

Next State Election: Spring 2017

Total Seats: 403 Vidhan Sabha and 80 Lok Sabha seats

Bottom Line: State elections in India’s most populous state are not reliable indicators of the outcomes of the general elections. The BJP’s enormous gains in the 2014 general election were not prefigured by results in previous elections.

Uttar Pradesh election results. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Uttar Pradesh election results 2002-2014. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Details: By 2012, the BJP had lost almost half of the 88 Vidhan Sabha seats it had won in 2002, and was reduced to holding a mere 12 percent of seats in the state legislature. In the 2014 national elections, however, the BJP triumphed, winning 71 seats (89 percent of the state delegation), up from 10 in the previous election. Unsurprisingly, although the INC held steady in the 2012 Vidhan Sabha elections, it lost 19 of its 21 Lok Sabha seats in 2014.

Uttarakhand election results. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Uttarakhand election results 2002-2014. Source: Election Commission of India, compiled by CSIS Wadhwani Chair.

Next State Election: Spring 2017

Total Seats: 70 Vidhan Sabha and 5 Lok Sabha seats

Bottom Line: Uttarakhand’s state elections did not accurately predict outcomes in the general elections. As in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP made a big gain in the 2014 general election, despite relatively steady results in previous elections.

Details: In 2002, the BJP won 19 Vidhan Sabha seats, compared to the INC’s 36. However, in the 2004 general election, the BJP acquired three of the state’s five Lok Sabha seats, while the INC only won a single seat. This was reversed in the following cycle, when the BJP won more Vidhan Sabha seats than the INC, only for the INC to then gain all five Lok Sabha seats in 2009. In 2012, the BJP and the INC won 31 and 32 Vidhan Sabha seats, respectively—representing a gain of 11 seats for the INC and a loss of 3 seats for the BJP. However, the BJP managed to win all five Lok Sabha seats in 2014.

Conclusion

Analysis of past election results reveals that state elections held within a year of the national election are better indicators of success in that state in the succeeding national election. However, the states that are holding elections in 2018 have in the past only predicted the general trend and not the degree of the trend. This is demonstrated in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where the BJP outperformed in the 2014 elections compared to the indications from the 2013 elections. This serves as a reminder that although states have acted as a good general indicator in the past, the results of state elections must not be taken too seriously.

Lastly, the same group of states (Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan) held state elections in 2003, 2008, and 2013. This means that the greater reliability of elections held in those years may be a consequence of the states holding the elections, rather than of greater temporal proximity. The predictive power of results in these three states could be attributed to the states having ‘stickier’ political cultures compared to states that hold elections two or even three years before a national election. However, it is equally possible that this is due to these states holding elections closer to the national election.

Mr. Andrew Keir is a researcher with the Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at CSIS.

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