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Myanmar’s ASEAN Coming Out Party

Apr 30th, 2012
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By James Wallar

Myanmar punctuated its emergence from isolation and pursuit of reforms by announcing its desire to Chair the 2014 Summit meetings of the Association of South East Nations (ASEAN).  ASEAN (too?) quickly agreed. International scrutiny will be intense on Myanmar’s stewardship of ASEAN’s programs and on whether its domestic reforms make it a credible ASEAN representative.  It is a coming out party with high risks, but high payoffs.

Myanmar’s move to chair ASEAN is a curious twist. The country rejected being a founding member in 1967 due to concerns about intrusion in its domestic policies. Now ASEAN has transformed itself into a rule-based institution, championing good governance and democracy, and engaging on member’s national issues that affect the group’s shared commitment to security, peace, and prosperity. Myanmar is doubling down on its ASEAN gambit, with the payoff being positive regional and international recognition.

The international donor community could take advantage of the developments in Myanmar and ASEAN.  Rather than creating a new compact for assistance programs, it could use Myanmar’s commitments in ASEAN to align their assistance programs. (more…)

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Video: Dialog with U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam David Shear

Mar 30th, 2012
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[Editor's Note: This is the second in a four post series of Dialogs conducted by Ernie Bower and Murray Hiebert with U.S. Ambassadors to the region.]

Last week Ambassador David Shear stopped by to discuss the U.S.-Vietnam relationship, including recent developments on trade, human rights concerns, and prospects for a strategic partnership in the context of common interests in regional stability. Ambassador Shear emphasized that since the normalization of relations with Vietnam in 1995, the depth and breadth of international connections has steadily expanded. You can watch his conversation with CSIS Southeast Asia Program Director Ernie Bower below:

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Fish and Foreign Policy: Renegotiating the South Pacific Tuna Treaty

Mar 26th, 2012
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By Elke Larsen

Tuna are the biggest economic link between the Pacific Islands & the United States. Source: David L.'s flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

Tuna is the largest economic interest shared by the United States and the Pacific Islands, consequently the 1988 South Pacific Tuna Treaty has served as the cornerstone of US-Pacific relations. Originally designed to provide aid and development to the island nations in return for U.S. access to the Western and Central Pacific Ocean’s tuna resources, it has recently become clear that that the treaty has not lived up to expectations. In May 2011 Papua New Guinea unilaterally announced it was withdrawing, giving all parties one year’s notice before the treaty would be nullified. With the Obama administration pledging to reengage the region, the 18 parties to the treaty have scrambled to breathe new life into the agreement.

The treaty collapsed for several reasons. First, it has failed to adapt to conservation measures. Tuna has become increasingly popular and scarce over the past 50 years, with Pacific fisheries now providing more than 50 percent of the global catch. With Tuna being one of the Pacific’s major natural resources, the parties to the treaty have aimed to create a sustainable fishery. It was revealed by the late 1990s that simply limiting the number of fishing vessel was ineffective as boat capacity increased. Therefore, in 2007, the Vessel Day Scheme (VDS) was launched that instead limited fishing efforts by capping the number of days that tuna vessels could operate. Overall, the South Pacific Tuna Treaty has failed to adapt to the VDS although it has become a standard operating procedure in the Pacific tuna industry; the US has had the right to operate 40 vessels fishing for unlimited periods of time. (more…)

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Video: Dialogue with U.S. Ambassador to Singapore David Adelman

Mar 26th, 2012
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[Editor's Note: This is the first in a four post series of Dialogues conducted by Ernie Bower and Murray Hiebert with U.S. Ambassadors to the region.]

Last week Ambassador David Adelman stopped by to discuss the latest dynamics in U.S.-Singapore relations with CSIS Southeast Asia Program Deputy Director Murray Hiebert. Ambassador Adelman expands on the launch of a new annual U.S.-Singapore strategic partnership dialogue, Singapore’s value for the U.S. economy and the watershed elections held in Singapore last May. You can watch the full video dialogue session below:

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India and the New U.S. Defense Strategy

Mar 1st, 2012
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By Amer Latif

The U.S. has high hopes for partnership with India. Here Indian and U.S. soldiers discuss small arms during bi-lateral exercise Yudh Abhyas. Source: #PACOM's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

Recently the U.S. Department of Defense released its new strategic guidance, which reflected the expected shift toward the Asia-Pacific region, touted by U.S. officials since the fall of last year. What was a bit unexpected was the attention given to India in such a key document. Long-standing Asian allies such as Australia, Japan, Korea, and others were lumped under the label of “existing alliances,” while India was singled out with the following passage: “The United States is also investing in a long term strategic partnership with India to support its ability to serve as a regional economic anchor and provider of security in the broader Indian Ocean region.”

The specific mention of India raises interesting questions about how India fits into the United States’ vision for security in the Asia-Pacific region. Washington and New Delhi have been actively building their defense relations through defense sales, exercises, and high-level military engagements. India now conducts more exercises with the United States than with any other country, and it is gradually integrating U.S. platforms and systems into the various branches of its armed forces. India has also performed admirably in counter-piracy operations off the Horn of Africa and elsewhere throughout the Indian Ocean. It has been actively engaging countries throughout the Asia-Pacific region with ship visits, high-level defense meetings, and the provision of military equipment, and it has even demonstrated leadership by establishing the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium and organizing the MILAN naval exercises held every two years.

Despite the impressive progress in recent years, questions still remain about India’s commitment and ability to be a security provider in Asia. Each of New Delhi’s defense engagements abroad is closely scrutinized and calibrated with an eye toward available military capacity, the scope and optics of the mission, and how a particular defense engagement will be politically perceived at home. Rather than being guided by an overarching national security strategy or strategic planning documents, these decisions are usually made on a case-by-case basis. (more…)

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Video: Linsanity’s Impact on US-China Relations

Feb 29th, 2012
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Even here at cogitASIA we have been keeping an eye on Linsanity.  Earlier this week, CSIS Korea Chair Victor Cha discussed whether Jeremy Lin’s new found fame will move the needle on broader relations between China and the United States.  Dr. Cha has studied the interplay of sports and politics in Northeast Asia for many years, and is thus well positioned to describe political dynamics behind Lin’s rise to Andrew Schwartz. Watch their short conversation on Jeremy Lin’s story:


(more…)

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Strategic Implications of an Open Arctic

Feb 27th, 2012
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By Eddie Walsh

The clouds begin to thin over the Arctic Ocean Aug. 19, 2009.

Increased attention for the Arctic is changing strategic dynamics for countries in the Pacific. Source: U.S. Geological Survey's flickr photostream used under a creative commons license.

[Editor's Note: The following is the first post in a series on the Strategic Implications of an Open Arctic for the Pacific.]

Norwegian Roald Amundsen is remembered as one of the world’s great explorers. His accomplishments include reaching both the North and South Poles and being the first to sail through the Northwest Passage. Remarkably, these feats were achieved in the early-1900s, long before the age of Gore-Tex® and modern survival gear.

After all of his great adventures, Amundsen was lost not on expedition but rather conducting a rescue mission to save a friend in the Arctic. His death reflects the harsh reality of life in the High North. This is not lost on Ambassador Wegger Chr. Strommen of the Kingdom of Norway, when he pulls down an inflatable globe, points to the Arctic, and stresses, “These are extreme conditions. These are not the tropics. You have to use military assets and military equipped platforms to have any kind of presence for search and rescue.” In this respect, not a lot has changed since Amundsen’s days. But, what has changed is that the ice is melting and Arctic sea lanes are opening. This has profound strategic repercussions for the eight member states of the Arctic Council.

Eddie Walsh, a non-resident fellow at Pacific Forum CSIS, therefore sat down with Ambassador Strommen to discuss his views on the political, economic, and environmental implications of an open Arctic, both for the Arctic-Pacific region and the rest of the world.

The Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs has said that the Arctic is the most important strategic priority of Norwegian foreign policy. What is meant by this statement and what are the implications for Norwegian foreign policy outside of the Arctic?

The Arctic is our identity. Norwegian territory is only 16% is land. The rest is water. We are basically a water country with a small land mass and large continental shelf dotted with islands. And, most of these territories are to the North. Our people are also a coastal people. Over 90% of our citizens live along the coast and they are pretty evenly dispersed. Roughly 500,000 live in the North.  So, the North is our home turf. It’s where we make our living. If you look at what pays for my shirt and my tie, its oil, shipping, fisheries, and oil supply services. Our people have always depended on such maritime resources.

With respect to our foreign policy, our renewed focus on the North will not change our international commitments. It is clear that our defense budget has not gone down and we are fortunate to have a good economy right now. There should be sufficient resources for us to do our fair share of international operations, like Afghanistan, and look after our vast maritime territory in the North. (more…)

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What Really Glimmers Behind the “Day of the Shining Star”

Feb 21st, 2012
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By Barbra Kim

Propaganda artwork of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-Il. Source: Joseph A Ferris III's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

North Korea’s recently deceased ruler, Kim Jong-il, received a 70th birthday celebration that will go down in the history books…literally. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) officially renamed February 16, “Day of the Shining Star,” following a tradition Kim set for his father and predecessor. The founder and “Eternal President” of North Korea, Kim Il-sung, has his birthday named “Day of the Sun.” – currently North Korea’s two biggest holidays.

The week-long birthday celebration –replete with the unveiling of bronze statues of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il riding on horses, the 16th annual Kimjongilia festival (a display of 30,000 potted Kimjongilia flowers), the standard military shows of soldiers marching in goose step, and an ice sculpture festival –can be seen to serve a double function.

First, these public events immortalize Kim Jong-il as they did his father. Second, they cement the legitimacy of the ruling Kim family, and consequently, the legitimization of Kim Jong-un’s succession.

Moreover, the overall tone of this week contrasts starkly with the breast-heaving, hair-renting, sobbing view of inconsolable North Koreans during their memorial service for Kim Jong-il last December. The pre-planned, flashy, celebrations can easily be interpreted as a politicized move by the regime to show the masses that there is a brighter future ahead. But the question that may have gone unnoticed is: who really runs these celebrations? (more…)

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Who is Xi?

Feb 16th, 2012
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By Ernie Bower

Vice President Xi meeting with U.S. Speaker of the House Boehner. Source: Speaker Boehner's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

Earlier this week, China’s vice president Xi Jinping arrived in Washington for a high level visit. To some, Xi—and China—mean everything to the United States. These observers view Asia’s risks and opportunities through the China prism. This narrow Sino-centric perspective is not strategic, however, nor is it practical. Understanding China, its rise, and what it wants to be is a core requirement for a successful and enduring U.S. approach to Asia, but it is not the whole game.

In fact, a balanced approach to Asia takes China into account but puts emphasis on other key relationships such as U.S. treaty allies in the region, strategic partners such as India and Singapore, and comprehensive partnerships such as with Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, and Vietnam.

Deepening ties across the Asia Pacific will take time, dedicated resources, and a retooling of U.S. foreign policy, national security, and military infrastructure. It will also require a new political script in the United States, one in which the leader of this country makes the case for Asia’s primary role in the United States’ economic and security future. America needs to begin to relate to Asia—not only politically from Washington, or financially from New York, or culturally from San Francisco and Los Angeles: it must connect at its center. Americans need leaders who can explain why Asia is fundamentally important to U.S. jobs, savings, economic growth, and security. (more…)

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Congress Should Top Up Ex-Im Bank

Feb 1st, 2012
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By Murray Hiebert

The political debate has been heated between those who want to slash federal spending to reduce the national debt and those who want to increase spending to spur the U.S. economy and create jobs. Here’s a step that would help achieve both goals: reauthorize the U.S. Export-Import Bank.

Ex-Im Bank is a relatively little-known federal agency that provides loan guarantees to companies in other countries that want to buy U.S. products. Ex-Im Bank guarantees enable foreign companies, to get affordable loans from commercial lenders, without which they could not buy U.S.-made products such as heavy construction machinery, airplanes, fire trucks, high-tech medical equipment, and clean energy technology and services.

Ex-Im loan guarantees have had an outsized impact on U.S. exports, economic growth, and jobs. In 2011, Ex-Im supported more than $40 billion in exports that helped create or support some 290,000 U.S. jobs. Ex-Im has played a key role in reviving U.S. manufacturing and boosting exports to Asia – one of the few bright spots in the U.S. economy in recent years. More than 80 percent of the bank’s transactions support thousands of small businesses across the country. (more…)

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