India

Will India’s Future Foreign Policy run through Lucknow, Kolkata, and Chennai?

Mar 21st, 2012
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By Prashant Agrawal

As India's regional parties are thrust onto the national stage, they may become pivotal foreign policy players. Here a group of Samajwadi supporters march in Mumbai. Source aljazeeraenglish's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

Diplomacy is always challenging, but understanding both where power lies in Delhi and what Delhi wants can be difficult for those that live in Delhi, much less those that live in foreign capitals.  Yet, if India’s 2012 elections portend what may happen in 2014, then understanding both who is in power in Delhi and what Delhi wants is about to become much harder.

A third front government (a coalition led by a regional party) that may come into power in 2014 will be unlike any that have come before it.  The parties that won big in the last two years have little experience at ruling in Delhi.  And their foreign policy goals are even less developed.

The last non-BJP or Congress Prime Minister was I.K. Gujral, who led the last third front government, the United Front, in 1997.  No matter how one views Gujral’s performance as Prime Minister, he was experienced in dealing with foreign leaders and he had a developed world view.  Before becoming Prime Minister, he had served as Foreign Minister and Ambassador to Moscow. He is famous for his Gujral Doctrine which amongst its five principals expounded that India would not seek reciprocity with its neighbors, “but (will) accommodate them in good faith and trust.” (more…)

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India and the New U.S. Defense Strategy

Mar 1st, 2012
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By Amer Latif

The U.S. has high hopes for partnership with India. Here Indian and U.S. soldiers discuss small arms during bi-lateral exercise Yudh Abhyas. Source: #PACOM's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

Recently the U.S. Department of Defense released its new strategic guidance, which reflected the expected shift toward the Asia-Pacific region, touted by U.S. officials since the fall of last year. What was a bit unexpected was the attention given to India in such a key document. Long-standing Asian allies such as Australia, Japan, Korea, and others were lumped under the label of “existing alliances,” while India was singled out with the following passage: “The United States is also investing in a long term strategic partnership with India to support its ability to serve as a regional economic anchor and provider of security in the broader Indian Ocean region.”

The specific mention of India raises interesting questions about how India fits into the United States’ vision for security in the Asia-Pacific region. Washington and New Delhi have been actively building their defense relations through defense sales, exercises, and high-level military engagements. India now conducts more exercises with the United States than with any other country, and it is gradually integrating U.S. platforms and systems into the various branches of its armed forces. India has also performed admirably in counter-piracy operations off the Horn of Africa and elsewhere throughout the Indian Ocean. It has been actively engaging countries throughout the Asia-Pacific region with ship visits, high-level defense meetings, and the provision of military equipment, and it has even demonstrated leadership by establishing the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium and organizing the MILAN naval exercises held every two years.

Despite the impressive progress in recent years, questions still remain about India’s commitment and ability to be a security provider in Asia. Each of New Delhi’s defense engagements abroad is closely scrutinized and calibrated with an eye toward available military capacity, the scope and optics of the mission, and how a particular defense engagement will be politically perceived at home. Rather than being guided by an overarching national security strategy or strategic planning documents, these decisions are usually made on a case-by-case basis. (more…)

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India’s Troubled Relationship with the Internet

Feb 15th, 2012
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By Ritika Bhasker

India's web censorship policies have drawn unfavorable comparisons to those of China. Source: runran's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

Kapil Sibal’s recent remarks about the Indian government not making any attempts to stifle social media were designed to counter the growing furor, both online and offline, regarding the world’s largest democracy’s latest attempts at censorship. For one, Indian censors have deemed the Oscar-nominated Girl with the Dragon Tattoo “unsuitable” for public release due to director David Fincher’s refusal to cut separate scenes depicting rape, and consensual sexual intercourse. Simultaneously, the exhausting debate that surrounds Salman Rushdie’s Satanic Verses—which is still banned in India—continues with Rushdie’s recent forced cancellation of an appearance at the Jaipur Literature Festival. While the government strenuously denies any attempts to ban Rushdie entering the country, the fact remains that even a video-conference with Rushdie was deemed far too provocative for the protesters who had gathered around the venue. And now, with the looming threat of government prosecution, several Internet companies including Google and Facebook have begun to comply with government requests to remove allegedly provocative and objectionable content from their websites.

Google’s bi-annual transparency report isn’t very flattering of the government, either. Between January and June of 2011, there were 68 government requests for a removal of 358 items, the majority of which were on social networking site, Orkut, and had been identified as being critical of the government. Google’s records state that the requests came from, “… state and local law enforcement agencies to remove YouTube videos that displayed protests against social leaders or used offensive language in reference to religious leaders.” (more…)

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Myanmar @ End of January 2012

Jan 27th, 2012
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By Rajiv Bathia This post was released in the ICRIER Wadhwani Chair  India-U.S. Insight Newsletter here. Re-posted with permission.

Myanmar’s Tatmadaw (military) strategists and pundits who gave the finishing touches, some two years back to their 2003 plan to bring about controlled political change, have ample reasons to celebrate the extent of success achieved so far.

Each arm of the triangle of Myanmar’s politics comprising the Government, NLD and ethnic minorities, has registered progress as compared to the situation prevailing in January 2010. Government-NLD relations have improved considerably, with Suu Kyi and her other party candidates ready to participate in April by-elections as a prelude to entering the Parliament. Following the release in batches of a sizable number of political prisoners, new winds of freedom are blowing in the land. The Government has concluded ceasefire agreements with several insurgent groups, the Karens being the most important of them all NLD and other political forces continue to back national reconciliation, while being conscious that nothing substantial can be achieved in a hurry and the Government remains the indispensable interlocutor and planner of future moves.

Likewise, the country’s relations with the international community look more promising than ever before. An unending series of high-level visits has lent new legitimacy and prestige to President Thein Sein’s government. He now plans an early tour of ASEAN capitals. Foreign travels by Suu Kyi are also likely to begin in the coming months. Sanctions by the US and EU are under review even as the EU has already lifted visa restrictions on top leaders. Purse strings for aid flows are getting loosened. Western corporate leaders are also beginning to consider anew investment prospects. (more…)

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Opportunity in Myanmar for U.S.-India Strategic Coordination

Jan 19th, 2012
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By Amer Latif & Nicholas Lombardo

Bagan sunrise in Myanmar. Sustained political reform in Myanmar represents an opportunity for U.S.-India strategic engagement. Source: druidabruxux's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

With the recent decision by the United States to restore full diplomatic relations with Myanmar, prompted by the country’s nascent political reforms and release of political prisoners, 2012 is set to be a pivotal year for Myanmar’s relations with its neighbors and with the West. In recent months, Myanmar has hosted Thailand’s prime minister, foreign ministers from Indonesia and Japan, and historic visits by U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton and British foreign secretary William Hague. Naypyidaw, sent a parliamentary delegation to Delhi in mid-December to study the rules and practices of the Indian parliament, signaling its interest in alternate democratic processes, and India’s army chief, General V.K. Singh, visited Myanmar for bilateral consultations this past week. The gradual changes in Myanmar also provide an opportunity for closer policy collaboration between United States and India in the year ahead.

Until recently, Washington and Delhi have historically taken divergent approaches to relations with Naypyidaw (the capital was Yangon until 2005). While the United States has aimed to isolate Myanmar politically and economically with sanctions directed at the military junta’s human rights abuses and suppression of democracy, India shifted away from a similar stance during the 1990s after becoming wary of losing influence with Myanmar vis-à-vis China. Delhi and Naypyidaw have cooperated since then on areas of mutual strategic interest including infrastructure development, counterterrorism, military-to-military relations, and science and technology training.

Yet, as Indian ambassador Rajiv Bhatia points out in a recent ICRIER publication, the United States has criticized India in the past for its approach to relations with Myanmar’s government. During President Obama’s state visit to India in November 2010, Bhatia notes, the president called out India in a speech to parliament for often avoiding issues of democracy and human rights violations “in international fora.” He urged India to accept expanded international responsibilities commensurate with its role as an emerging power, including the condemnation of violations in Myanmar. (more…)

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Better Late than Never: India-Pakistan Trade Steps in the Right Direction

Nov 17th, 2011
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By Persis Khambatta & Ketan Thakkar

An Indian & a Pakistani soldier conclude a ceremony. Trade normalization may reduce tension between their countries. Source: Joshuahsong's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

Last week, Pakistan haltingly announced its intention to begin normalizing trade relations with India, ultimately granting India MFN status. This means that Pakistan’s tariffs on Indian imports would receive the same treatment as imports from its other trading partners. But what will it mean for India-Pakistan relations going forward?

Given that nothing in the past has worked to decrease tension on either side of the border, taking the heat off of politicians and putting it in the hands of economists and the private sector is a worthy effort.  Current bilateral trade is thought to be between $2 billion and $3 billion, most of it in three sectors—chemicals, base metals, and machinery and electronics—going through unofficial channels, mainly Dubai, costing both economies valuable revenue and increasing the price of goods on both sides of the border. Greater trade liberalization would reduce these costs, and begin to move the needle on trade volume upwards.

With an expected jump in trade, a simultaneous increase in people-to-people and private-sector interaction is logical. Increased commerce should be seen as a starting point for reducing tensions between the two countries and as a step in the right direction to help each country weather global economic forces. The move also seems to indicate that the countries are willing to separate economic issues from their more difficult political issues, which can only help move forward the formal dialogue they resumed this summer. These talks were suspended after the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks. (more…)

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Déjà Vu

Nov 13th, 2011
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By Karl F. Inderfurth

Istanbul Conference on Afghanistan

U.S. Deputy Secretary Burns meets with Pakistani Foreign Affairs Minister Khar at the Istanbul Conference on Afghanistan, Nov 1, 2011. Source: U.S. Department of State's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

The formal document issued at last week’s high-level conference in Turkey was entitled the “Istanbul Process on Regional Security and Cooperation for a Secure and Stable Afghanistan.” The participating nations pledged they will be guided by a set of “common principles and commitments,” including “Respect for Afghanistan’s sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity” and “Non-intervention in the internal affairs of other states.”

While commendable, that language also provoked a sense of déjà vu. In July 1999, I led the U.S. delegation to the UN-sponsored “6 Plus 2” conference on Afghanistan, held in Uzbekistan. The formal document issued at the end of that meeting was the “Tashkent Declaration on Fundamental Principles for a Peaceful Settlement of the Conflict in Afghanistan.” It included this pledge: “We reaffirm our firm commitment to the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and national unity of Afghanistan.” Participants included Pakistan, Iran, China, the neighboring Central Asian republics, the United States, Russia, and a Taliban representative. Several states promptly disregarded their solemn commitments upon adjournment of the meeting. (more…)

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To Better Protect India, Harden the Indian Periphery

Oct 12th, 2011
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By Amer Latif

Indian Customs at a Nepal - India border crossing. Source: Flickr user Jakol's photostream, used under a creative commons license.

Last month, I had the privilege of testifying before the House Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade on the subject of US-India Counterterrorism Cooperation.  During the hearing, I made the point that the U.S. and India should closely examine the possibility of working together on strengthening the borders and counterterrorism capacities of India’s neighboring states to prevent them from being exploited by regional terror groups such as Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT).

Without a doubt, terror groups operating from Pakistani territory continue to represent the greatest terrorist threat against India.  However, groups such as the LeT and HUJI have become adept at exploiting weak borders and ungoverned spaces along India’s borders in Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives.  For India, it is not only strategically essential to build its domestic counter terror (CT) capabilities, but also to harden its periphery and deny the use of its neighbors‘ territory as facilitation nodes for terrorist group operations such as transit, money laundering, and recruiting.

In Nepal, the country has recently emerged from a brutal civil war in which a fragile government is trying to form a constitution and determine an acceptable way to integrate cadre from the People’s Liberation Army into the Nepalese Army.  While Kathmandu wrestles with these challenges, the LeT has reportedly established operations in Nepal in the Terai where a majority of Nepal’s Muslims reside. (more…)

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Monsoon Effect: U.S. Debt Downgrade and its Impact on India

Sep 1st, 2011
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By Sanjana Basu

Monsoon Sandbags in Mumbai

Now more exposed to the global market, India looks to weather the effects of the U.S. debt downgrade. Source: Mark Nye's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

World markets continue to be in turmoil since Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the U.S. AAA credit rating on August 5. This time around, India is not as cushioned from a global financial crisis arising out of the U.S. debt debacle, due to its increased exposure to global markets. Moreover, domestic political paralysis, inflationary pressures, market volatility, and falling overseas demand may exacerbate the negative impact of this debt crisis on India. That said there are also several reasons to stay positive: India’s rupee has held up well against the major global currencies, India’s foreign exchange reserves are strong and growing, exports are surging and economic growth is still robust.

Exploring the situation in greater detail, there are three ways the fallout from the S&P decision may hinder India’s economy:

First, Indian equity markets have been shaken up by global uncertainty. Volatility in global markets has affected India’s equity markets, with the main Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex closing at a near 19 month low on August 26. (more…)

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Towards an Innovation Economy: Challenges for the U.S. and India

Aug 24th, 2011
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By Persis Khambatta

President Barack Obama walks with Prime Minister Singh of India at the White House, Nov. 24, 2009.

President Obama talks with Prime Minister Singh of India. Innovation is increasingly viewed as a key area for U.S.-India cooperation.

Recently, Prime Minister Singh of India declared the present decade to be the ‘Decade of Innovation’ and announced the creation of a National Innovation Council, which will promote innovation centers nationwide. When laying out, “A Strategy for American Innovation,” President Obama said: “The United States led the world’s economies in the 20th century because we led the world in innovation. Today, the competition is keener; the challenge is tougher; and that is why innovation is more important than ever.” Clearly, our leaders get the critical importance of innovation—the application of new inventions and technologies to solve old problems, address new challenges and generate economic growth.  What’s needed now is action from legislators on both sides to press ahead and enable innovation.  New drug discoveries, clean energy, energy efficient buildings, greater access to electricity and lower-cost healthcare, cold-chain technologies, expanded access to broadband and joint experiments in space can all be many steps closer to reality if policies are put in place to enhance bilateral cooperation between the U.S. and India.

Three things come to mind as a place to start: (more…)

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