Governance

What Really Glimmers Behind the “Day of the Shining Star”

Feb 21st, 2012
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By Barbra Kim

Propaganda artwork of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-Il. Source: Joseph A Ferris III's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

North Korea’s recently deceased ruler, Kim Jong-il, received a 70th birthday celebration that will go down in the history books…literally. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) officially renamed February 16, “Day of the Shining Star,” following a tradition Kim set for his father and predecessor. The founder and “Eternal President” of North Korea, Kim Il-sung, has his birthday named “Day of the Sun.” – currently North Korea’s two biggest holidays.

The week-long birthday celebration –replete with the unveiling of bronze statues of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il riding on horses, the 16th annual Kimjongilia festival (a display of 30,000 potted Kimjongilia flowers), the standard military shows of soldiers marching in goose step, and an ice sculpture festival –can be seen to serve a double function.

First, these public events immortalize Kim Jong-il as they did his father. Second, they cement the legitimacy of the ruling Kim family, and consequently, the legitimization of Kim Jong-un’s succession.

Moreover, the overall tone of this week contrasts starkly with the breast-heaving, hair-renting, sobbing view of inconsolable North Koreans during their memorial service for Kim Jong-il last December. The pre-planned, flashy, celebrations can easily be interpreted as a politicized move by the regime to show the masses that there is a brighter future ahead. But the question that may have gone unnoticed is: who really runs these celebrations? (more…)

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Myanmar @ End of January 2012

Jan 27th, 2012
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By Rajiv Bathia This post was released in the ICRIER Wadhwani Chair  India-U.S. Insight Newsletter here. Re-posted with permission.

Myanmar’s Tatmadaw (military) strategists and pundits who gave the finishing touches, some two years back to their 2003 plan to bring about controlled political change, have ample reasons to celebrate the extent of success achieved so far.

Each arm of the triangle of Myanmar’s politics comprising the Government, NLD and ethnic minorities, has registered progress as compared to the situation prevailing in January 2010. Government-NLD relations have improved considerably, with Suu Kyi and her other party candidates ready to participate in April by-elections as a prelude to entering the Parliament. Following the release in batches of a sizable number of political prisoners, new winds of freedom are blowing in the land. The Government has concluded ceasefire agreements with several insurgent groups, the Karens being the most important of them all NLD and other political forces continue to back national reconciliation, while being conscious that nothing substantial can be achieved in a hurry and the Government remains the indispensable interlocutor and planner of future moves.

Likewise, the country’s relations with the international community look more promising than ever before. An unending series of high-level visits has lent new legitimacy and prestige to President Thein Sein’s government. He now plans an early tour of ASEAN capitals. Foreign travels by Suu Kyi are also likely to begin in the coming months. Sanctions by the US and EU are under review even as the EU has already lifted visa restrictions on top leaders. Purse strings for aid flows are getting loosened. Western corporate leaders are also beginning to consider anew investment prospects. (more…)

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Malaysia’s One Step Forward and Two Steps Back – The Anwar Ibrahim Appeal

Jan 24th, 2012
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By Blake Berger

Anwar Ibrahim

Anwar Ibrahim's trial appeal has generated concerns about a relapse in the independence of Malaysia's judiciary. Source: udeyismail's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

Less than two weeks after Judge Zabidin Diah acquitted Anwar Ibrahim of sodomy on January 9, the spotlight has been re-focused back on Anwar and the Malaysian judiciary. On, January 20, Attorney-General Gani Patail responded to calls from lead prosecutor  Mohd Yusof Zainal Abiden  to appeal the judge’s verdict.

Anwar’s acquittal had been praised both domestically and internationally. Even Prime Minister Najib Razak in an interview with the Wall Street Journal said that the verdict had provided evidence that the Malaysian judiciary was free of executive interference and further underscored that he was serious about his reform initiative.

With the appeal, critics have called the prime minister’s statements and the sincerity of his reforms into question. Coinciding with the appeal of Anwar’s acquittal, the case against Karpal Singh, Anwar’s lead legal counsel and national chairman of the opposition Democratic Action Party , who had been acquitted of sedition in 2010, was reopened and his acquittal appealed by the court on the same day. Both Anwar and Karpal are senior figures in the opposition coalition.

The prosecution’s appeal of both cases not only shifts the spotlight away from Prime Minister Najib’s reform initiatives, but again raises questions about the rule of law and the state of democracy in Malaysia. (more…)

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Opportunity in Myanmar for U.S.-India Strategic Coordination

Jan 19th, 2012
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By Amer Latif & Nicholas Lombardo

Bagan sunrise in Myanmar. Sustained political reform in Myanmar represents an opportunity for U.S.-India strategic engagement. Source: druidabruxux's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

With the recent decision by the United States to restore full diplomatic relations with Myanmar, prompted by the country’s nascent political reforms and release of political prisoners, 2012 is set to be a pivotal year for Myanmar’s relations with its neighbors and with the West. In recent months, Myanmar has hosted Thailand’s prime minister, foreign ministers from Indonesia and Japan, and historic visits by U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton and British foreign secretary William Hague. Naypyidaw, sent a parliamentary delegation to Delhi in mid-December to study the rules and practices of the Indian parliament, signaling its interest in alternate democratic processes, and India’s army chief, General V.K. Singh, visited Myanmar for bilateral consultations this past week. The gradual changes in Myanmar also provide an opportunity for closer policy collaboration between United States and India in the year ahead.

Until recently, Washington and Delhi have historically taken divergent approaches to relations with Naypyidaw (the capital was Yangon until 2005). While the United States has aimed to isolate Myanmar politically and economically with sanctions directed at the military junta’s human rights abuses and suppression of democracy, India shifted away from a similar stance during the 1990s after becoming wary of losing influence with Myanmar vis-à-vis China. Delhi and Naypyidaw have cooperated since then on areas of mutual strategic interest including infrastructure development, counterterrorism, military-to-military relations, and science and technology training.

Yet, as Indian ambassador Rajiv Bhatia points out in a recent ICRIER publication, the United States has criticized India in the past for its approach to relations with Myanmar’s government. During President Obama’s state visit to India in November 2010, Bhatia notes, the president called out India in a speech to parliament for often avoiding issues of democracy and human rights violations “in international fora.” He urged India to accept expanded international responsibilities commensurate with its role as an emerging power, including the condemnation of violations in Myanmar. (more…)

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Video: Dialogue on the Future of Fiji

Jan 12th, 2012
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Watch Fijian Ambassador to the United States, Ambassador Winston Thompson, discuss recent developments affecting the future of governance in Fiji with CSIS Southeast Asia Program Director Ernie Bower.

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Mixed Results for Corruption Fight in Indonesia

Dec 7th, 2011
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By Murray Hiebert

Corruption and the KPK remain a controversial issue in Indonesia. Source: ivanatman's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

Transparency International gave Indonesia another poor grade on December 1 in the country’s ongoing battle against corruption. Indonesia scored 3 out of a possible 10 (the cleanest score) in Transparency’s annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), a slight improvement from 2.8 last year. It also ranked 100 (an improvement from 110 last year) among the 183 countries surveyed. The results highlighted a widespread perception in Indonesia that the government is not doing enough in its efforts to tackle corruption.

Several ASEAN countries scored lower than Indonesia on the CPI, which is closely watched by foreign investors, economists, and civil society groups.  Vietnam got a score of 2.9 (out of 10), just below that of Indonesia, while the Philippines came in at 2.6, despite the campaign mounted by President Benigno Aquino to tackle corruption. Singapore got the best score in the region with 9.2.

The day after the CPI was released, the Indonesian parliament revamped the country’s Corruption Eradication Commission, popularly known as the KPK for its Indonesian initials, but the new lineup got mixed reviews. Busyro Muqoddas was removed as head of the KPK, apparently because he was an outspoken critic of corruption and courageous in his pursuit of corrupt officials, but he kept his seat on the commission. He was replaced as head of the KPK by a relatively unknown lawyer, Abraham Samat. (more…)

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What Clinton Accomplished in Myanmar

Dec 6th, 2011
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By Greg Poling

Secretary Clinton meets with Aung San Suu Kyi. Clinton's visit could signal a new era of reform in Myanmar. Source: U.S. Department of State's flickr photostream.

For the first time since John Foster Dulles did it in 1955, a U.S. Secretary of State just wrapped up a visit to long-secluded Myanmar. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with government leaders, including President Thein Sein, in the current capital of Naypyidaw, as well as democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, in the former capital of Yangon during her November 30-December 2 visit. The trip had been announced by President Barack Obama just two weeks earlier in a surprise move on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit. Both the suddenness of the announcement and the rapid deployment of Secretary Clinton speak to the breathtaking speed with which the former pariah state has attracted international attention with its reforms.

Despite the long list of reforms that have occurred in Myanmar over the last several months – easing censorship, unblocking the Internet, amnesties that included some political prisoners, ceasefires to end longstanding violence with several ethnic minority groups, signing a vague law permitting right of assembly, allowing unions and worker strikes, and permitting Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) to register and run for office – critics warn that the Obama administration is running a serious risk by sending Clinton to Myanmar, risking political embarrassment should reforms prove illusory. Others insist that greater U.S. engagement is crucial to boost the domestic legitimacy and support for Myanmar’s reformers to keep up the momentum. (more…)

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Why Go to Myanmar?

Nov 22nd, 2011
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By Ernie Bower

President Obama announces Secretary Clinton will visit Myanmar. Signs of reform by Thein Sein have opened new possibilities for engagement. Source: U.S. Department of State's flickr photostream.

Why should Hillary Clinton go to Myanmar? The short answer is to encourage the best chance at real political change in a country that effectively cloistered itself under harsh military rule for nearly five decades. Myanmar, or Burma, has been the virtual political ball and chain of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which it joined in 1997. Secretary Clinton plans to visit on December 1–2, becoming the first U.S. Secretary of State to do so since John Foster Dulles 50 years ago.

The plan is essentially to “take them up on it” and proactively encourage what could be a historic opportunity for reform. Thein Sein, Myanmar’s president, has signaled that the government is opening the door to political reform and he says he won’t go back. History advises caution, however, as the generals have cynically initiated numerous false starts in the past, only to slam the door shut with determined violence. It is likely that the junta’s former leader, Than Shwe, has allowed what he sees as a calculated gamble on reform.

The Obama administration is seizing the opportunity to encourage change. The approach makes sense for several reasons: (more…)

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Diverging Visions of Asia’s Future Lead to Polarisation

Nov 18th, 2011
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By Hugh White

Tropical Cyclones Ului & Tomas over the South Pacific. Source: NASA Earth Observatory image.

Well many thanks to Ernie Bower, both for his very kind recent remarks about my contribution to the debate on U.S.-China relations, and for his entirely apposite and stimulating observations on my description of America’s vision of Asia’s future.  Ernie was responding to my claim that America’s vision is of an Asia divided between Chinese-led and U.S.-led camps.  He says this zero-sum, Cold War-style polarisation is not what America wants.  In one sense, I’m sure he is right: America does not want China as a rival.  It would prefer China willingly accept America’s view of Asia’s future.  But that is a bit like my wife saying to me:  ‘There is no reason for us to argue, as long as you don’t make the mistake of disagreeing with me.’

Actually, my wife is far too sensible to ever say such a thing, but I am not so sure about U.S. foreign-policy.  The question is not whether America wants an adversarial relationship with China, but how far it is prepared to compromise to avoid one.  And I think President Obama gave us the answer in his very important speech here in Canberra this week. (more…)

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East Asia Summit Themes in Context

Nov 17th, 2011
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By Ernie Bower

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell meeting with Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa to prepare for the 2011 EAS. Source: U.S. Embassy Jakarta's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

President Barack Obama and the leaders of 17 other countries will meet this weekend, November 19–20, at the sixth East Asia Summit (EAS) in Bali, Indonesia, the first summit in this forum to include the United States and Russia.  So what will be the themes of the conversation? The EAS should be understood in the context of a major effort by President Obama and his national security team to convince the Asia Pacific that the United States has refocused its energy on the region.

The end goal is to build trust and find areas of common interest among the members. The members of the East Asia Summit recognize that in order to be relevant, it must also address the most compelling and important issues facing the region, even if they are politically sensitive to members. During this year’s summit, three overarching issues are expected to be addressed: (1) humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR); (2) ASEAN connectivity, meaning regional development, infrastructure (both on land and maritime linkages), and expansion of trade and investment ties; and (3) maritime security, which will encompass discussions of the South China Sea and related issues.

During the summit, Indonesia and Australia will share papers on how to enhance cooperation and facilitate disaster management and humanitarian relief in the region. This comes in the context of not only the severe flooding that has inundated many Southeast Asian countries, but also the crippling New Zealand earthquakes and tragic Japanese March tsunami and earthquake. Joint efforts to provide assistance are of high impact and value to people in need around the region. They are also the low-hanging fruit of security cooperation because such assistance is clearly a public good and cooperation drives expanded communication, builds trust, and eventually creates interoperability. That is important because the end goal is to have the region’s militaries working together on common and compelling missions, understanding one another, and in so doing mitigating opportunities for misunderstandings or conflict.

(more…)

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