Burma/Myanmar

Governance: The Blind Spot in China’s Narrative

Oct 7th, 2011
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By Ernie Bower

Chinese Drummers ready prior to the 2008 Olympics Opening Ceremony in Beijing. Source: Chengphoto's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

Australian political scientist Hugh White’s argument that the coming century will be dominated by China and that, therefore, the most rational foreign policy course for Australia and others to follow would be to recognize China’s dominance and align their countries accordingly has a gaping blind spot. Namely: governance. The truth is no countries in the Asia Pacific want to emulate Chinese governance models and the Chinese government is doing its best not to let its own increasingly empowered people know much about regional trends that are inarguably moving toward broader political participation.

Beijing is furious with the new Burmese government over its decision to halt construction of the Myitsone Dam at the top of the Irrawaddy River. China is working hard to shut down any news coverage of the Arab Spring. The transition to democracy in Indonesia, Prime Minister Najib Razak’s political reform package in Malaysia, and even the Thai elections are topics that are decidedly not being promoted by the Chinese government and in public media circles.

While China’s economic growth and dynamism are welcomed nearly unanimously, Beijing has rattled its neighbors in Asia by bearing its fangs on sovereignty issues in the South China (or East or West Philippine) Sea and in disputed waters around Japan such as the Diaoyu and Senkaku Islands. The region is now engaged in a collective and iterative research project to understand what China wants and how it will act as it continues to amass predominant economic power in the Asia Pacific. (more…)

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Malaysia’s 2015 Test

Aug 23rd, 2011
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By Ernie Bower

In 2015, Malaysian leadership and foreign policy will be judged by a benchmark defined not by Kuala Lumpur, but by ASEAN’s leaders.

In less than five years, Malaysia will assume the chair of ASEAN, and will be accountable for ASEAN’s delivery on goals set by the region’s heads of state outlined in the ASEAN Charter.

The ASEAN Charter outlines goals for regional integration in security and political, economic and socio-cultural ties.  These benchmarks are to be achieved by 2015.  The world will be assessing ASEAN’s capabilities and effectiveness using a measuring stick provided by ASEAN itself. (more…)

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Governance in ASEAN: The Next Generation

Aug 3rd, 2011
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By Ernie Bower

This week in Hanoi, the former head of Vietnam’s state audit agency, Vu Dinh Hue, will be named the country’s new finance minister. The message to Vietnam’s state-owned enterprises and ministries with bloated budgets is clear: there is a new sheriff in town, and he has access to all the numbers. His marching orders from the Communist Party Central Committee appear to include stabilizing the macro economy and starting to clean house to ensure there are no more high-profile collapses of major state-owned companies like the shipbuilder Vinashin.

Vietnam’s cabinet will shrink from 26 ministers to 22. Roughly two-thirds of the cabinet will be new ministers, most of whom are well prepared for their new roles as former deputy ministers or ministers in other ministries. While the dominant narrative is continuity of policy, the subplot is change, reform, and responsiveness.

What is happening in Vietnam is also taking place around Southeast Asia. ASEAN’s governments are finding themselves in a new era. The days of the great leaders who forged nations with fast-developing economies from post-colonial, commodity-driven regimes are fading. The new reality is dominated by voters empowered by economic growth, with access to technology, increasingly urbanized, and demanding better governance from their political leaders. (more…)

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Myanmar’s Delicate Dance with ASEAN

Jun 30th, 2011
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By Niruban Balachandran

In a controversial visit by a Burmese delegation to China, President Thein Sein recently announced that Naypyidaw fully supports Beijing’s contention that it owns most of the South China Sea (to which at least six other Asian states have historically laid claim). Separately, recent speeches by both U.S. Senator John McCain and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have pointed out Naypyidaw’s failure to improve its abysmal human-rights record, despite its membership in ASEAN since 1997. At first glance, it seems that ASEAN’s influence over Naypyidaw is minimal at best, and that Myanmar has been grossly disloyal to its nine Southeast Asian partners.

Pagoda in Myanmar's new capital of Naypyidaw.

Pagoda in Myanmar's new capital of Naypyidaw.

However, the New York Times published a remarkable story last week about a recent maritime confrontation between the United States, Myanma,r and North Korea, which illustrates the far reach of ASEAN’s political clout with Naypyidaw. Specifically, it attests to the diplomatic influence of ASEAN on Myanmar. With the support of American and ASEAN leaders,  a North Korean cargo ship suspected of carrying missiles or other weapons to Myanmar was intercepted last month by the destroyer USS McCampbell. The North Korean ship was asked to turn back, in compliance with an international embargo on arms trade with Naypyidaw. (more…)

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Video: Ernie Bower and Mike Green Discuss the Trilateral Relationship between U.S., Japan, and ASEAN

Feb 9th, 2011
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By Ernest Z. Bower, Senior Adviser and Director of the Southeast Asia Program, CSIS

In Hawaii last month CSIS, with the support of the Japan Foundation Center for Global Partnership (CGP), organized a trilateral strategic dialogue with scholars and policymakers from around the Pacific to examine ways in which the United States, Japan, and members of ASEAN can work together. I cochaired the dialog with Michael Green of CSIS and Georgetown University. This Track 1.5 discussion sought to encourage deeper U.S. and Japanese engagement with ASEAN, and explore areas for cooperation across a range of challenges. (Government officials participated in their personal capacities.)The participants focused on international security issues, economic integration, and institutional architecture in Asia.

Now back in Washington and at CSIS, Mike and I discuss some of the group’s findings in the video above. You can read the group’s findings in their entirety here.

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An Election Not Worthy of Support

Sep 30th, 2010
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By Win Tin, founder of Burma’s National League for Democracy party and a member of its central executive committee. He was a political prisoner from 1989 to 2008.

Navi Pillay, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, recently said the world must exercise “utmost vigilance” to ensure the approaching elections in Myanmar (Burma) are free and fair.

We are disappointed in such comments, which focus on the election as something important for our country, as something worth waiting and watching for, although this election is not the solution for Burma.

The elections, scheduled for Nov. 7, are designed to legalize military rule in Burma under the 2008 constitution, which was written to create a permanent military dictatorship in our country.

After the election, the constitution will come into effect, a so-called civilian government will be formed by acting and retired generals who all are under the military commander-in-chief, and the people of Burma will legally become the subjects of the military.

Our party, the National League for Democracy, and our ethnic allies have refused to accept the regime’s constitution and have decided to boycott the elections. The military regime’s constitution and severely restricting election laws demonstrated to all of us the true intention the regime has for this election — the legalization and legitimization of military rule in our country.

We refuse to abandon our aspirations for democracy in Burma and give the regime the legitimacy it wants for its elections. With millions of people of Burma supporting our position, we hoped the international community would understand the regime’s intentions as clearly as we do and pressure the regime to stop its unilateral and undemocratic process.

Until recently, the United Nations demanded the regime commit itself to an all-parties inclusive, participatory, free and fair process through political dialogue with democratic opposition and representatives of ethnic minorities. But now an important phrase — “all-parties inclusive” — is surprisingly excluded from their statements and speeches.

Although Ms. Pillay urged the world to exercise “utmost vigilance,” there is no need to wait until the Election Day to make a judgment. The election commission was appointed by the regime and filled with loyalists who unilaterally decided that many candidates are ineligible to run. The electoral laws and by-laws impose severe restrictions on political parties. Thousands of political prisoners — including our leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi — are not allowed to participate in the election or be members of the parties.

The regime’s prime minister and cabinet ministers have switched to civilian dress, transformed their mass organization into their political party, and are campaigning with the use of state properties, resources, funds and threats. The election commission is shamelessly violating its own rules in favor of the prime minister’s party and other proxy parties of the regime.

Is it really necessary for the international community to wait until election day to see whether the elections are free and fair?

(more…)

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2nd US ASEAN Summit: What's on the Menu in Manhattan?

Sep 23rd, 2010
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By Ernest Z. Bower, Senior Adviser & Director, CSIS Southeast Asia Program

SUMMARY

US President Barack Obama will host eight of the ten leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)[i] in New York on Friday, September 24, 2010 at the 2nd US ASEAN Summit.  The meeting underlines renewed American policy energy being invested in Southeast Asia.  Headlines from the discussion should focus on three areas:

1.       Security alignment including a restatement of a common position on the South China Sea;

2.       Economic growth and trade – particularly ASEAN’s leaders seeking an update from the President on the health of the US economy and a read on whether the mid-term US Congressional elections might be an inflection point after which the US can return to a proactive posture on trade; and

3.       Burma – specifically exploring a way forward on how the US and ASEAN can encourage Burma’s leaders to introduce political space in the November elections or beyond.

The fact the meeting is taking place in September in the United States is important in that it institutionalizes renewed US engagement in ASEAN ahead of key steps forward in the creating of regional security and trade architecture in Asia.

On the other hand, the fact that the Summit is taking place in New York not Washington and without the leader of ASEAN’s largest country and economy, Indonesia, underlines the fact that while policy intent is clearly substantive engagement, there is still much work to be done to align the US and ASEAN.

Despite the best intentions of the principles, the meeting will certainly be viewed through the prism of perceived increased tension between China and its Asian neighbors particularly related to disputed maritime territories.

Here are some Critical Questions about the Summit and what we can expect:

(more…)

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Myanmar Election: An Outrage or an Opportunity?

Sep 9th, 2010
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By Lex Rieffel, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution & David I. Steinberg, Distinguished Professor of Asian Studies, Georgetown University

The military junta in Myanmar recently announced that the country’s first election in 20 years will be held on November 7th.

This is the country formerly known as Burma, that went to the polls in 1990 and voted overwhelmingly for the National League for Democracy (NLD), only to have the results thrown out by the junta.

This is the military junta that has kept Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest for most of the past 20 years and made her one of today’s leading global symbols of the struggle for democracy and human rights.

This is the junta — led by Senior Gen. Than Shwe — that has presided over the world’s longest continuing civil war (since 1949), that brutally suppressed monk-led demonstrations (in 2007), that was slow in responding to the worst natural disaster in the country’s history (Cyclone Nargis in 2008), and that allowed the country to sink to the bottom rank of the world’s countries by most social and economic indicators.

And Than Shwe is the dictator who has been impervious to the sanctions imposed by the United States and other democratic countries, as well as to pleas from the United Nations to bring an end to decades of flagrant human rights abuses.

Why then is the junta holding an election now?

(more…)

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US ASEAN Summit in New York – Gut Check Time

Sep 8th, 2010
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By Ernest Z. Bower, Senior Adviser and Director, CSIS Southeast Asia Program

The 2nd US ASEAN Summit in New York on September 24 is an important meeting but there are questions regarding who will attend.   President Susilio Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) of Indonesia, the incoming chair of ASEAN, hasn’t confirmed his attendance yet.   Vietnam is still considering whether President Nguyen Minh Triet, who as head of government traditionally represents his country at the United Nations or Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung will attend.  Press reports from Bangkok have misreported that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is uncertain about attending – we understand he is confirmed, as are all the remaining heads of government from ASEAN except the Burmese who have opted to send their Foreign Minister — no surprise given the threat enhanced sanctions on Burmese leaders and the UN moving toward a Commission of Inquiry (COI) for crimes against humanity.

The real issue is SBY’s decision.  He has the power to send a strong signal to his fellow ASEAN leaders, the United States and all of Asia.  Should he decide to pass up President Barack Obama’s invitation to join the Summit in New York, there will be serious questions about where US-ASEAN relations are heading.  The trajectory coming into New York looks very positive, building on a strong foundation and strengthening links between the US and ASEAN head of key meetings this Fall including the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN Defense Minister Meeting + 8 (ADMM) in Vietnam, the G-20 Summit in Seoul and the APEC Summit in Yokohama.  Substantively, US ASEAN ties are sound and would remain so even if SBY doesn’t attend, but the signal of not attending has the potential to do real damage over time.

(more…)

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US ASEAN Summit in the Big Apple

Sep 2nd, 2010
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By Ernest Z. Bower, Senior Adviser and Director, CSIS Southeast Asia Program

Approximately 40 hours ago, the White House made the decision to invite the ten heads of government from ASEAN to hold the 2nd US ASEAN Summit in New York.  The leaders will meet over lunch from 12 noon through 2 PM.  The focus will be augmented by a dialogue with America’s top policy leaders in a dialogue focused on the key pillars of US ASEAN common interests organized by CSIS and a dinner with American business leaders organized by the US ASEAN Business Council and the US Chamber of Commerce will cap off the day of intensive focus on the US ASEAN relationship.

Though I argued hard for the Summit to take place in Washington, D.C. — as did the Asia policy team within the Administration – that decision is done and it is time to move on.  However, it is worth noting that the choice does further reveal one of the great ironies of American power under President Obama — while US soft power is potentially at a high point given the world’s impression of President Obama as a leader who reaches out and builds multilateral consensus, his political team is not letting him out of the box to use that power in regions of the world which could help address key issues keeping him focused at home – namely creating economic growth through expanded trade and establishing an enduring security framework in Asia.

The facts that the Summit will take place in New York, on US soil, and within a year of the inaugural conclave are significant and it is time to move the focus from venue, face and form to substance. President Obama and the ASEAN leaders will surely focus on trade and security issues as their top agenda items.  ASEAN needs the US to play offense on trade again.  It is America’s 4th largest overseas market and the most trade dependent region in the world with trade accounting for nearly 100% of aggregate GDP.  ASEAN leaders will urge the President to pass the Korean US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) which they see as the bellweather indicator on whether the Obama Administration will invest the political capital in trade as an engine of growth after US mid-term elections.  They will also encourage the US to move forward on the Transpacific Parntership (TPP).  ASEAN itself has work to do to bring the US to the table on a US ASEAN FTA.  The region has be serious about coming the table willing to negotiate and not simply encouraging the US to help build capacity in lesser developed countries.  On its part, the US needs to be practical and innovate in the process with ASEAN – it won’t be able to reach a US Singapore FTA gold standard agreement with all 10 countries (or 9 minus Burma for now) without some creative timeframes for countries who can’t meet the required high standards immediately.

(more…)

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