Burma/Myanmar

Myanmar @ End of January 2012

Jan 27th, 2012
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By Rajiv Bathia This post was released in the ICRIER Wadhwani Chair  India-U.S. Insight Newsletter here. Re-posted with permission.

Myanmar’s Tatmadaw (military) strategists and pundits who gave the finishing touches, some two years back to their 2003 plan to bring about controlled political change, have ample reasons to celebrate the extent of success achieved so far.

Each arm of the triangle of Myanmar’s politics comprising the Government, NLD and ethnic minorities, has registered progress as compared to the situation prevailing in January 2010. Government-NLD relations have improved considerably, with Suu Kyi and her other party candidates ready to participate in April by-elections as a prelude to entering the Parliament. Following the release in batches of a sizable number of political prisoners, new winds of freedom are blowing in the land. The Government has concluded ceasefire agreements with several insurgent groups, the Karens being the most important of them all NLD and other political forces continue to back national reconciliation, while being conscious that nothing substantial can be achieved in a hurry and the Government remains the indispensable interlocutor and planner of future moves.

Likewise, the country’s relations with the international community look more promising than ever before. An unending series of high-level visits has lent new legitimacy and prestige to President Thein Sein’s government. He now plans an early tour of ASEAN capitals. Foreign travels by Suu Kyi are also likely to begin in the coming months. Sanctions by the US and EU are under review even as the EU has already lifted visa restrictions on top leaders. Purse strings for aid flows are getting loosened. Western corporate leaders are also beginning to consider anew investment prospects. (more…)

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Opportunity in Myanmar for U.S.-India Strategic Coordination

Jan 19th, 2012
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By Amer Latif & Nicholas Lombardo

Bagan sunrise in Myanmar. Sustained political reform in Myanmar represents an opportunity for U.S.-India strategic engagement. Source: druidabruxux's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

With the recent decision by the United States to restore full diplomatic relations with Myanmar, prompted by the country’s nascent political reforms and release of political prisoners, 2012 is set to be a pivotal year for Myanmar’s relations with its neighbors and with the West. In recent months, Myanmar has hosted Thailand’s prime minister, foreign ministers from Indonesia and Japan, and historic visits by U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton and British foreign secretary William Hague. Naypyidaw, sent a parliamentary delegation to Delhi in mid-December to study the rules and practices of the Indian parliament, signaling its interest in alternate democratic processes, and India’s army chief, General V.K. Singh, visited Myanmar for bilateral consultations this past week. The gradual changes in Myanmar also provide an opportunity for closer policy collaboration between United States and India in the year ahead.

Until recently, Washington and Delhi have historically taken divergent approaches to relations with Naypyidaw (the capital was Yangon until 2005). While the United States has aimed to isolate Myanmar politically and economically with sanctions directed at the military junta’s human rights abuses and suppression of democracy, India shifted away from a similar stance during the 1990s after becoming wary of losing influence with Myanmar vis-à-vis China. Delhi and Naypyidaw have cooperated since then on areas of mutual strategic interest including infrastructure development, counterterrorism, military-to-military relations, and science and technology training.

Yet, as Indian ambassador Rajiv Bhatia points out in a recent ICRIER publication, the United States has criticized India in the past for its approach to relations with Myanmar’s government. During President Obama’s state visit to India in November 2010, Bhatia notes, the president called out India in a speech to parliament for often avoiding issues of democracy and human rights violations “in international fora.” He urged India to accept expanded international responsibilities commensurate with its role as an emerging power, including the condemnation of violations in Myanmar. (more…)

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US in Southeast Asia in 2012 – Focus, Follow Through & Nurture Political Reform in Myanmar

Jan 3rd, 2012
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By Ernie Bower

U.S. Navy lookout watches the horizon in Asia. U.S. engagement will face stiff tests yet has significant opportunities in 2012. Source: U.S. Pacific Fleet's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

The biggest challenge for the United States in Southeast Asia in 2012 will be to focus and follow through. The biggest opportunity is supporting real political reform in Myanmar and thereby strengthening ASEAN.

In 2011, President Obama and his foreign policy and national security teams made a compelling case that the United States was pivoting toward Asia. He said the Asia Pacific region will be the center point for new economic growth and security concerns in the first part of the 21st century. Asian allies and strategic partners were encouraged by those words, backed up by actions including American leadership in trade with the Transpacific Partnership negotiations and the US attending the East Asia Summit for the first time, announcing new basing agreements in Australia and following through with strong and consistent focus on resolving South China Sea disputes.

While 2011 was an impressive year for advancing U.S. goals and engagement in Asia, partners in the region are anxious about whether the United States can sustain the new level of commitment it has staked out. Most Asian countries have sought a more robust US presence in the region to help convince a rising China to engage in regional frameworks that will result in the collective development of rules around trade and security. They want a China that asks the question what it “should” do instead of what it “can” do. (more…)

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Obstacles Remain to Improved U.S. Relations with Myanmar

Dec 13th, 2011
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By Greg Poling

Secretary Clinton meets Burmese President U Thein Sein. Normalized U.S. relations with Myanmar still face numerous challenges. Source: U.S. Department of State flickr photostream.

Despite recent progress, many barriers still remain in place to improved American relations with Myanmar. Throughout her recent groundbreaking trip, Secretary Clinton emphasized that Myanmar still has a lot of work to do before U.S. sanctions can be lifted and relations normalized. She stressed the need for the government to release its remaining political prisoners, end ongoing violence against ethnic minorities, and cut off all military relations with North Korea. While these issues will be difficult to resolve, Myanmar’s leaders addressed each of them during Clinton’s visit.

Speaker Thura Shwe Mann said he told Clinton that the government will work to ensure that “all citizens including political prisoners” can take part in rebuilding the country. President Thein Sein told her that the government is currently looking into ways to release remaining political prisoners. These statements, while vague and unsatisfying, are promising steps for a government that has long denied the existence of political prisoners.

Violent conflicts between the army and ethnic minority groups have plagued the country for decades. Government officials assured Clinton that they are pursuing cease-fire talks with 10 ethnic groups with the goal of a lasting peace and political participation by all. There have been confirmed talks between government representatives and Kachin, Shan, Mon, Chin, Karenni, and Karen groups in recent months. The government has already signed cease-fires this year with the Mongla, United Wa State Army, and Democratic Karen Buddhist Army. As if to underscore its stated commitment to ending the violence, the government announced a preliminary cease-fire with the Shan State Army-South on the last day of Clinton’s visit. (more…)

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What Clinton Accomplished in Myanmar

Dec 6th, 2011
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By Greg Poling

Secretary Clinton meets with Aung San Suu Kyi. Clinton's visit could signal a new era of reform in Myanmar. Source: U.S. Department of State's flickr photostream.

For the first time since John Foster Dulles did it in 1955, a U.S. Secretary of State just wrapped up a visit to long-secluded Myanmar. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with government leaders, including President Thein Sein, in the current capital of Naypyidaw, as well as democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, in the former capital of Yangon during her November 30-December 2 visit. The trip had been announced by President Barack Obama just two weeks earlier in a surprise move on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit. Both the suddenness of the announcement and the rapid deployment of Secretary Clinton speak to the breathtaking speed with which the former pariah state has attracted international attention with its reforms.

Despite the long list of reforms that have occurred in Myanmar over the last several months – easing censorship, unblocking the Internet, amnesties that included some political prisoners, ceasefires to end longstanding violence with several ethnic minority groups, signing a vague law permitting right of assembly, allowing unions and worker strikes, and permitting Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) to register and run for office – critics warn that the Obama administration is running a serious risk by sending Clinton to Myanmar, risking political embarrassment should reforms prove illusory. Others insist that greater U.S. engagement is crucial to boost the domestic legitimacy and support for Myanmar’s reformers to keep up the momentum. (more…)

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Why Go to Myanmar?

Nov 22nd, 2011
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By Ernie Bower

President Obama announces Secretary Clinton will visit Myanmar. Signs of reform by Thein Sein have opened new possibilities for engagement. Source: U.S. Department of State's flickr photostream.

Why should Hillary Clinton go to Myanmar? The short answer is to encourage the best chance at real political change in a country that effectively cloistered itself under harsh military rule for nearly five decades. Myanmar, or Burma, has been the virtual political ball and chain of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which it joined in 1997. Secretary Clinton plans to visit on December 1–2, becoming the first U.S. Secretary of State to do so since John Foster Dulles 50 years ago.

The plan is essentially to “take them up on it” and proactively encourage what could be a historic opportunity for reform. Thein Sein, Myanmar’s president, has signaled that the government is opening the door to political reform and he says he won’t go back. History advises caution, however, as the generals have cynically initiated numerous false starts in the past, only to slam the door shut with determined violence. It is likely that the junta’s former leader, Than Shwe, has allowed what he sees as a calculated gamble on reform.

The Obama administration is seizing the opportunity to encourage change. The approach makes sense for several reasons: (more…)

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East Asia Summit: Next Step is Structure

Nov 14th, 2011
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By Ernie Bower

Sunrise in Bali. President Obama and regional leaders will meet in Bali at the East Asia Summit for the first time . Source: andycarvin's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

Leaders of eighteen nations from the Asia Pacific will meet in Bali, Indonesia this week for the East Asia Summit (EAS) in recognition that new regional architecture is required to ensure peace and prosperity in a region that now accounts for over half of world economic activity and will be the center of 21st century security concerns.

The leaders will discuss regional security issues and steps to build trust and cooperation, for instance around humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.  They will talk about education, finance, and regional economic integration, as well as deal with some of the most compelling issues challenging the region, namely resolving disputes in the South China Sea, North Korea’s nuclear threat, and Myanmar’s political reforms.

However, the question of the structure and next steps for the EAS does not appear to be on the agenda.  It should be. Over the next four years, smaller or less developed countries will host this forum including Cambodia (2012), Brunei Darussalam (2013), Myanmar (2014/2015), and Laos (2014/2015).  The order of the last two has not been finalized, but will likely be decided during the ASEAN Summit held concurrently with the EAS. Structure is an existential question for EAS. (more…)

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Two Models for Integrating Asia: A Must Win for President Obama

Nov 11th, 2011
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By Ernie Bower

President Obama at a 2010 Trans-Pacific Partnership Summit. TPP talks have renewed animation after U.S. ratification of the KORUS FTA. Source: gobiernodechile's flickr photostream, used a creative commons license.

There is a real competition under way to define how economic integration of Asia will proceed. The two competing models are those of the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the China-led ASEAN Plus Three — ASEAN plus China, Japan, and South Korea. The U.S.-led model is deep and requires massive political commitments by governments to legally bind themselves and reform current regulations and practices. The China-led model is relatively shallow and easier for governments to join. It is high-profile, with nonbinding agreements expressing general intent and some specifics around tariffs, but it includes little on other commercially important rules and regulations.

This competition should sharpen the sense of urgency for governments to move faster and more decisively. Fortunately, President Obama and the United States have begun to address the lack of leadership on trade that has resulted in the serious loss of U.S. market share in Asia. Congress recently passed the Korea, Colombia, and Panama FTAs and will announce, with the eight other negotiating partners, a significant framework agreement for the TPP, signaling that the talks are progressing well toward an agreement.

Passing the U.S.-Korea FTA convinced Asia that the United States is putting presidential political capital behind trade again. That factor was a game changer and has resulted in Japan, Canada, Mexico, and Korea indicating serious interest in joining the TPP, making progress toward the vision of a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific seem more compelling and achievable. (more…)

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Responding to Burmese Reform

Oct 13th, 2011
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By Murray Hiebert & Greg Poling

Children Participate in an Anti-Dam Protest in Burma. Source: Flickr user InternationalRivers photostream, used under a creative commons license.

Burma may be in the midst of the most significant political reform since the 1960s when the military seized control.  No one can be sure if these changes will take hold and how far they will go, but, as Thant Myint-U has argued, it is critical for the United States to recognize what is happening, encourage those pressing for change, and start to consider steps to help end the country’s decades of isolation.

Burmese president Thein Sein stunned the world and his people when he announced on September 30 that construction by a Chinese company of the controversial Myitsone dam would be suspended immediately. The dam would have flooded an area the size of Singapore and by many accounts would have slowed the flow of the Irrawaddy River enough to cause widespread damage far downstream.

More important than the environmental victory, however, was the message President Thein Sein’s announcement sent to his own people. For the first time in a generation, and perhaps much longer, their voices had actually mattered. President Thein Sein proved willing and able to annoy neighboring China and his own rapacious fellow elites to assuage public anger. (more…)

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Governance: The Blind Spot in China’s Narrative

Oct 7th, 2011
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By Ernie Bower

Chinese Drummers ready prior to the 2008 Olympics Opening Ceremony in Beijing. Source: Chengphoto's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

Australian political scientist Hugh White’s argument that the coming century will be dominated by China and that, therefore, the most rational foreign policy course for Australia and others to follow would be to recognize China’s dominance and align their countries accordingly has a gaping blind spot. Namely: governance. The truth is no countries in the Asia Pacific want to emulate Chinese governance models and the Chinese government is doing its best not to let its own increasingly empowered people know much about regional trends that are inarguably moving toward broader political participation.

Beijing is furious with the new Burmese government over its decision to halt construction of the Myitsone Dam at the top of the Irrawaddy River. China is working hard to shut down any news coverage of the Arab Spring. The transition to democracy in Indonesia, Prime Minister Najib Razak’s political reform package in Malaysia, and even the Thai elections are topics that are decidedly not being promoted by the Chinese government and in public media circles.

While China’s economic growth and dynamism are welcomed nearly unanimously, Beijing has rattled its neighbors in Asia by bearing its fangs on sovereignty issues in the South China (or East or West Philippine) Sea and in disputed waters around Japan such as the Diaoyu and Senkaku Islands. The region is now engaged in a collective and iterative research project to understand what China wants and how it will act as it continues to amass predominant economic power in the Asia Pacific. (more…)

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