Watch Singapore’s Ambassador to the U.S., H.E. Chan Heng Chee discuss the upcoming high level conference on Singapore-U.S. relations held at CSIS in Washington, D.C. with Southeast Asia Program Senior Fellow Murray Hiebert. To learn more about the February 8th Conference, click here.
By Rajiv Bathia This post was released in the ICRIER Wadhwani Chair India-U.S. Insight Newsletter here. Re-posted with permission.
Myanmar’s Tatmadaw (military) strategists and pundits who gave the finishing touches, some two years back to their 2003 plan to bring about controlled political change, have ample reasons to celebrate the extent of success achieved so far.
Each arm of the triangle of Myanmar’s politics comprising the Government, NLD and ethnic minorities, has registered progress as compared to the situation prevailing in January 2010. Government-NLD relations have improved considerably, with Suu Kyi and her other party candidates ready to participate in April by-elections as a prelude to entering the Parliament. Following the release in batches of a sizable number of political prisoners, new winds of freedom are blowing in the land. The Government has concluded ceasefire agreements with several insurgent groups, the Karens being the most important of them all NLD and other political forces continue to back national reconciliation, while being conscious that nothing substantial can be achieved in a hurry and the Government remains the indispensable interlocutor and planner of future moves.
Likewise, the country’s relations with the international community look more promising than ever before. An unending series of high-level visits has lent new legitimacy and prestige to President Thein Sein’s government. He now plans an early tour of ASEAN capitals. Foreign travels by Suu Kyi are also likely to begin in the coming months. Sanctions by the US and EU are under review even as the EU has already lifted visa restrictions on top leaders. Purse strings for aid flows are getting loosened. Western corporate leaders are also beginning to consider anew investment prospects. (more…)
By James Wallar
Market in Shanghai. Would EAS serve as a broader platform for U.S. trade focus than TPP? Source: d'n'c's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.
CSIS took another great initiative in launching the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) series on January 6. It is important that this series not fall prey to a Washington-centric focus. The first session, which began with a keynote address by Michael Froman, deputy national security advisor for international economics, ran the risk of doing so, but this was avoided by the brilliant presentations by Matthew Goodman, senior economics advisor at the State Department, and Susan Schwab, former U.S. Trade Representative, who lifted the veil on the broader Asian context.
Few would dispute that the U.S. government needs to be engaged in Asia, where more than half the world’s growth is generated and where U.S. political security interests loom large. The U.S. government’s Asia “pivot” is a welcomed and necessary redirection of the U.S. administration’s energies. The question is whether the TPP is a sufficiently robust platform for the United State’s Asian engagement.
“Where are the markets?” was Schwab’s rhetorical question. Countries participating in the TPP negotiations account for a small share of U.S. trade. China, India, Korea, Japan, and Indonesia, where the real markets are, are not yet part of the TPP. The speakers at the CSIS conference did not give comfort that any of them would be welcomed to join soon. We were informed that the TPP negotiations will continue apace. Which countries will want to join an agreement that they have not been involved in shaping to reflect their economic interests? (more…)
By Ernie Bower
U.S. Navy lookout watches the horizon in Asia. U.S. engagement will face stiff tests yet has significant opportunities in 2012. Source: U.S. Pacific Fleet's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.
The biggest challenge for the United States in Southeast Asia in 2012 will be to focus and follow through. The biggest opportunity is supporting real political reform in Myanmar and thereby strengthening ASEAN.
In 2011, President Obama and his foreign policy and national security teams made a compelling case that the United States was pivoting toward Asia. He said the Asia Pacific region will be the center point for new economic growth and security concerns in the first part of the 21st century. Asian allies and strategic partners were encouraged by those words, backed up by actions including American leadership in trade with the Transpacific Partnership negotiations and the US attending the East Asia Summit for the first time, announcing new basing agreements in Australia and following through with strong and consistent focus on resolving South China Sea disputes.
While 2011 was an impressive year for advancing U.S. goals and engagement in Asia, partners in the region are anxious about whether the United States can sustain the new level of commitment it has staked out. Most Asian countries have sought a more robust US presence in the region to help convince a rising China to engage in regional frameworks that will result in the collective development of rules around trade and security. They want a China that asks the question what it “should” do instead of what it “can” do. (more…)
By Ernie Bower
President Obama announces Secretary Clinton will visit Myanmar. Signs of reform by Thein Sein have opened new possibilities for engagement. Source: U.S. Department of State's flickr photostream.
Why should Hillary Clinton go to Myanmar? The short answer is to encourage the best chance at real political change in a country that effectively cloistered itself under harsh military rule for nearly five decades. Myanmar, or Burma, has been the virtual political ball and chain of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which it joined in 1997. Secretary Clinton plans to visit on December 1–2, becoming the first U.S. Secretary of State to do so since John Foster Dulles 50 years ago.
The plan is essentially to “take them up on it” and proactively encourage what could be a historic opportunity for reform. Thein Sein, Myanmar’s president, has signaled that the government is opening the door to political reform and he says he won’t go back. History advises caution, however, as the generals have cynically initiated numerous false starts in the past, only to slam the door shut with determined violence. It is likely that the junta’s former leader, Than Shwe, has allowed what he sees as a calculated gamble on reform.
The Obama administration is seizing the opportunity to encourage change. The approach makes sense for several reasons: (more…)
By Daljit Singh
A country of just 4 million people, New Zealand punches above its weight in soft power. It is admired in Asia for its good governance, strong support for international institutions and the rule of law, and expertise in niche areas like dairy and agricultural produce, forestry, disaster management and education, including English language training.
It has reached out to Asia, the destination of most its exports, with remarkable success. It enjoys excellent relations with the major Asian powers and is the only OECD country to have entered into a comprehensive free trade agreement with China with whom relations have been especially warm. New Zealand is a member of all the ASEAN-centred regional organisations. It is trusted and valued in ASEAN for its steadfast support of ASEAN goals, provision of good counsel, effective technical assistance, and non-confrontational style.
However, New Zealand needs to be more alert to the power shifts in the Asia-Pacific region which are generating unease among Asian states and also in Australia and America on whom the security of New Zealand ultimately depends. New Zealanders may not have sufficiently recognized these powerful currents because distance deprives them of any real sense of threat, even though there have been some changes in official thinking recently. (more…)
By Ernie Bower
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell meeting with Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa to prepare for the 2011 EAS. Source: U.S. Embassy Jakarta's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.
President Barack Obama and the leaders of 17 other countries will meet this weekend, November 19–20, at the sixth East Asia Summit (EAS) in Bali, Indonesia, the first summit in this forum to include the United States and Russia. So what will be the themes of the conversation? The EAS should be understood in the context of a major effort by President Obama and his national security team to convince the Asia Pacific that the United States has refocused its energy on the region.
The end goal is to build trust and find areas of common interest among the members. The members of the East Asia Summit recognize that in order to be relevant, it must also address the most compelling and important issues facing the region, even if they are politically sensitive to members. During this year’s summit, three overarching issues are expected to be addressed: (1) humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR); (2) ASEAN connectivity, meaning regional development, infrastructure (both on land and maritime linkages), and expansion of trade and investment ties; and (3) maritime security, which will encompass discussions of the South China Sea and related issues.
During the summit, Indonesia and Australia will share papers on how to enhance cooperation and facilitate disaster management and humanitarian relief in the region. This comes in the context of not only the severe flooding that has inundated many Southeast Asian countries, but also the crippling New Zealand earthquakes and tragic Japanese March tsunami and earthquake. Joint efforts to provide assistance are of high impact and value to people in need around the region. They are also the low-hanging fruit of security cooperation because such assistance is clearly a public good and cooperation drives expanded communication, builds trust, and eventually creates interoperability. That is important because the end goal is to have the region’s militaries working together on common and compelling missions, understanding one another, and in so doing mitigating opportunities for misunderstandings or conflict.
By Ernie Bower
My friend and colleague Hugh White does a brilliant job of asking the hard questions when it comes to assessments of U.S. and Chinese power in Asia and their impact on foreign policy and national security. His writings sometimes provide an equally compelling opportunity to clarify various positions and strategies. In a recent note in the East Asia Forum entitled “Obama and Australia’s vision of Asia’s future,” Professor White argues that “American vision is that Asia will divide into two camps, with China on one side and the rest, under U.S. leadership, on the other. It hopes that if the rest of Asia stays strong and united by America’s side, China will eventually see the error of its ways and join the US-led camp as well, thus restoring America’s uncontested primacy.”
Almost right, Hugh, but not quite. The grand strategy and the plan behind the headlines you are reading about President Obama’s current trip to the region is indeed to convince China to join its neighbors around the region, but not in a regime dominated by U.S. primacy. This old Cold War like polarity seems to have fixated Dr. White into trying to understand power in Asia as zero sum. That is not and should not be the U.S. strategic goal.
(more…)
By Ernie Bower
Sunrise in Bali. President Obama and regional leaders will meet in Bali at the East Asia Summit for the first time . Source: andycarvin's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.
Leaders of eighteen nations from the Asia Pacific will meet in Bali, Indonesia this week for the East Asia Summit (EAS) in recognition that new regional architecture is required to ensure peace and prosperity in a region that now accounts for over half of world economic activity and will be the center of 21st century security concerns.
The leaders will discuss regional security issues and steps to build trust and cooperation, for instance around humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. They will talk about education, finance, and regional economic integration, as well as deal with some of the most compelling issues challenging the region, namely resolving disputes in the South China Sea, North Korea’s nuclear threat, and Myanmar’s political reforms.
However, the question of the structure and next steps for the EAS does not appear to be on the agenda. It should be. Over the next four years, smaller or less developed countries will host this forum including Cambodia (2012), Brunei Darussalam (2013), Myanmar (2014/2015), and Laos (2014/2015). The order of the last two has not been finalized, but will likely be decided during the ASEAN Summit held concurrently with the EAS. Structure is an existential question for EAS. (more…)
By Ernie Bower
President Obama at a 2010 Trans-Pacific Partnership Summit. TPP talks have renewed animation after U.S. ratification of the KORUS FTA. Source: gobiernodechile's flickr photostream, used a creative commons license.
There is a real competition under way to define how economic integration of Asia will proceed. The two competing models are those of the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the China-led ASEAN Plus Three — ASEAN plus China, Japan, and South Korea. The U.S.-led model is deep and requires massive political commitments by governments to legally bind themselves and reform current regulations and practices. The China-led model is relatively shallow and easier for governments to join. It is high-profile, with nonbinding agreements expressing general intent and some specifics around tariffs, but it includes little on other commercially important rules and regulations.
This competition should sharpen the sense of urgency for governments to move faster and more decisively. Fortunately, President Obama and the United States have begun to address the lack of leadership on trade that has resulted in the serious loss of U.S. market share in Asia. Congress recently passed the Korea, Colombia, and Panama FTAs and will announce, with the eight other negotiating partners, a significant framework agreement for the TPP, signaling that the talks are progressing well toward an agreement.
Passing the U.S.-Korea FTA convinced Asia that the United States is putting presidential political capital behind trade again. That factor was a game changer and has resulted in Japan, Canada, Mexico, and Korea indicating serious interest in joining the TPP, making progress toward the vision of a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific seem more compelling and achievable. (more…)